Electricity consumption in Brazil is expected to grow by an average of 3,3% per year until 2035, reaching 939 TWh, according to projections from the Electricity Demand Notebook of the 2035 Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2035). The study was launched this Thursday (18) by the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) and EPE (Energy Research Company).
In the lower-case scenario, demand growth could reach 2,7% per year, reaching 872 TWh. In the higher-case, more dynamic scenario, growth would be 5% per year, with consumption reaching 1.118 TWh in 2035.
The trade and services sector is expected to lead the expansion, with an average annual increase of 4,7%, totaling 179 TWh by the end of the period. The residential sector is expected to grow 3% annually, reaching 254 TWh, within a projected universe of 91 million consumer units.
Industry will see an average annual growth of 2,8%, reaching 272 TWh, with emphasis on the metallurgy, chemical, and cement sectors. Other sectors, such as rural, public administration, sanitation, and public lighting, are expected to add 136 TWh by 2035, with an average annual growth of 4,2%.
O PDE 2035 incorporated, for the first time, the analysis of special loads, such as electromobility, data centers, and hydrogen production by electrolysis. These emerging uses could represent between 1,2% and 12,9% of total demand in 2035, depending on the scenario considered.
In the National Interconnected System (SIN), the global energy load is expected to reach an average of 115 GW in the baseline scenario, potentially reaching an average of 138 GW in the upper-tier scenario. Maximum integrated demand could exceed 180 GWh/h, especially with the entry of large hydrogen-powered consumers and data centers.
The study also projects that technical and non-technical losses, currently around 18% of the load, tend to decline slightly in scenarios of greater economic dynamism and integration of large loads connected to the basic grid.
Another highlight is self-generation of electricity. This segment is expected to account for 11,6% of total consumption in 2025 and grow an average of 1,6% annually, reaching 92,4 TWh in 2035. Among energy-intensive industries, such as steel, pulp, and petrochemicals, growth is expected to be 3% per year.
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