The full opening of the Free Energy Market in Brazil, scheduled for November 2028 — 36 months after the enactment of Law 15.269/2025 — should lead the country to second place in the world ranking of electricity freedom — currently led by Japan — considering current data from the IEA (International Energy Agency).
The projection is based on an analysis by Abraceel (Brazilian Association of Electric Energy Commercialization) and represents a significant leap compared to the country's current position.
Today, Brazil ranks 41st out of 56 countries evaluated, but expanding the right to choose for all consumers tends to reposition the country among the most open markets in the world. Currently, the runner-up is Germany, followed by France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Australia, in that order.
Path
The structural change stems from Law 15.269/2025, which established a timeline for universalizing access to the Free Energy Market. In other words, commercial and industrial consumers served at low voltage were given up to 24 months to migrate, while others, including residential consumers, have up to 36 months.
Until 2019, only large consumers had access to the free market. Through regulatory adjustments, the demand limit was gradually reduced until it reached all Group A consumers in 2023, significantly expanding the number of participants.
This progress has already been reflected in international rankings: Brazil moved from 55th place in 2019 to 41st in recent years. With universalization, the expectation is for a direct leap to the top of the list, behind only fully liberalized markets.
This transition, however, according to Abraceel, depends on a series of complementary regulatory measures, such as the definition of specific tariffs, the creation of mechanisms for consumers without a supplier, information campaigns, and rules for compensating distributors that lose market share.
Alert
Despite the positive outlook on the pace of reopening, Abraceel recently issued a alert regarding price behavior in the Free Energy Market.The concern was noted by Canal Solar It has been around for about a week and points to an upward trend and greater volatility in trading values.
According to the organization, there are signs of imbalance in the functioning of the market, with impacts on investment decisions and on the competitiveness of the free market environment.
One of the main elements highlighted is the pricing model, which is strongly linked to the PLD (Price of Settlement of Differences). This indicator, although based on mathematical models, also reflects operational decisions and institutional guidelines of the sector.
The adoption of a more conservative planning mechanism — known as hybrid Newave — since 2025 has increased risk sensitivity, raising prices even in scenarios considered favorable from a hydrological point of view.
In practice, this has led to situations where energy prices remain high even with comfortable reservoir levels, in addition to increasing volatility during periods of uncertainty.
Impacts
This scenario has generated unease among marketing agents, who point to difficulties in structuring contracts and predicting costs in a more unstable environment.
Furthermore, the perception of risk may deter new investments in generation, especially at a time when the free market already accounts for about 42% of national demand.
With the prospect of this percentage increasing in the coming years, the discussion about the pricing model is likely to become even more relevant.
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