Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to play an increasingly important role in the energy matrix of Brazilian air transport over the next decade, according to a study by EPE (Energy Research Company).
According to the PDE 2035 — the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2035 — air freight is expected to account for 11,7% of total fuel consumption for air cargo transport and 12% of domestic energy demand for air passenger transport in 2035, allowing for minimum reductions of 8% in greenhouse gas emissions from domestic flights.
The expansion of SAF is directly associated with the environmental goals assumed by Brazil in the aviation sector, especially CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) and ProBioQAV, established by Law No. 14.993/2024, known as the Future Fuel Law.
These instruments establish progressive emission reduction obligations, creating a regulatory environment favorable to the incorporation of low-carbon fuels in aviation.
Growth in air activity supports SAF's progress.
The study indicates that both air cargo and passenger transport are expected to maintain a growth trajectory over the next ten years.
In the case of air cargo, activity is expected to grow at an average rate of 3,7% per year between 2023 and 2035, while energy demand grows at a more moderate pace, around 1,9% per year, precisely because of the partial replacement of fossil kerosene with SAF (Solitary Agricultural Fuel).
For air passenger transport, EPE projects average growth of 4,9% per year until 2035, driven by increased population income and greater use of air travel. In this context, the SAF (System for Air Financing) will be gradually incorporated starting in 2027, the year in which the mandatory reduction of emissions in domestic operations of national airlines comes into effect.
What is SAF?
SAF is an alternative fuel to traditional aviation kerosene, produced from renewable raw materials or waste, such as vegetable oils, waste fats, biomass, municipal solid waste, and even synthetic routes with green hydrogen.
It can be used in current aircraft in a mixture with fossil fuel, without the need for engine or airport infrastructure adaptations, making it the main short- and medium-term solution for the decarbonization of air transport.
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