The CMSE (Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee) is due to meet this Wednesday (13) amid growing pressure from consumers and free market agents for changes in the electricity pricing model.
Among the topics on the agenda is the possible update of the risk aversion parameters used in the computational models that define the PLD (Settlement Price of Differences), a benchmark for the short-term market, which will come into effect from 2027.
The discussion revolves around the mechanisms used by the Newave, Decomp, and Dessem models, which take into account variables such as reservoir storage, hydrology, load, and power plant dispatch.
Within this framework, parameters such as CVaR and VMinOp define the degree of conservatism adopted in the operation of the electrical system.
Since 2025, the so-called CVaR 15/40 has been in effect, in which the 15% worst hydrological scenarios are weighted at 40% in the calculations. According to critics of the model, this has artificially increased energy prices by making the system excessively risk-averse.
Manifesto to the Ministry of Mines and Energy
On the eve of the CMSE meeting, entities linked to the União Pela Energia (Union for Energy) movement sent a statement to the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, advocating for urgent changes in the pricing structure of the electricity sector.
In the document, consumers state that the current model is imposing increasing difficulties for future energy contracts and creating an environment of insecurity incompatible with medium- and long-term industrial planning.
According to the document, the combination of reduced liquidity and high PLD (Price of Liquidation of Differences) is contaminating future price curves and putting pressure on costs for Brazilian industry.
The organizations argue that electricity is a structural factor of competitiveness and maintain that the current model internalizes an "excessively conservative" degree of risk aversion, generating artificial signals of future scarcity.
Alternatively, they advocate adopting the CVaR 15/30 parameter, which the signatories consider to be more balanced between operational safety and economic rationality.
The group argues that the change would reduce the so-called "artificial scarcity premium" currently embedded in energy prices.
Business leaders put pressure
The manifesto sent to the minister is in addition to another movement announced by... Canal Solar On Monday, the 11th, when business owners and representatives of free consumers submitted to the federal government the “"Manifesto of Free Energy Consumers".
The document also questions the current pricing criteria and warns that the model is favoring generation agents at the expense of productive sectors.
According to business leaders, maintaining the CVaR 15/40 ratio increases thermoelectric dispatch, raises prices in the free market, and puts pressure on mechanisms such as tariff flags.
The signatories further state that the current methodology promotes an unbalanced redistribution of revenue within the electricity sector, benefiting uncontracted generators while consumers and traders face increasing difficulties in contracting energy under competitive conditions.
The discussion takes place at a particularly delicate time for the free market, marked by strong volatility, reduced liquidity, and increased exposure to the spot market.
Axia Energia leaves Abraceel
Amid the turbulent environment in the sector, Axia Energia (formerly Eletrobras) decided to disaffiliate from Abraceel (Brazilian Association of Electricity Traders).
According to market sources, the request for disassociation was submitted to the entity this week. The move comes after public disagreements regarding the very model for setting the PLD (Price of Money Laundering).
While Abraceel has been advocating for changes in the parameters, considering the current prices inadequate and excessively volatile, Axia maintains that the values correctly reflect the operating conditions and the reality of the Brazilian electricity grid.
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