China will account for at least one-third of global clean energy exports by 2050 and is expected to transform its current energy trade deficit into a surplus by the end of the 2030s. This projection is part of the "Economic Transition Scenario" study by BloombergNEF (BNEF).
For the first time, the consultancy has outlined scenarios for global trade flows up to 2050, covering 28 geographies and 28 product categories linked to the energy transition, including electric vehicles, solar modules, batteries, and battery metals.
The survey points to a structural shift in international trade. While electric vehicles, batteries, and other clean technologies are gaining scale and relevance, fossil fuels are entering a trajectory of stagnation and, subsequently, decline.
Divergent paths for China, the US, and the European Union.
According to BNEF's "Economic Transition Scenario," which considers the continued decline in the costs of clean technologies and the absence of new, high-impact climate policies, China consolidates its position as the leading global exporter of clean technology products.
According to the analysis, the rapid expansion of exports of electric vehicles And batteries, coupled with the advancement of domestic electrification, should transform China's trade deficit of US$266 billion in energy products, recorded in 2024, into a surplus by the end of the 2030s.
In the case of the United States, the survey indicates that the country still ranks as a net importer of the products analyzed, albeit on a smaller scale, supported by significant oil and gas exports.
With energy transitionHowever, American exports of fossil fuels These levels tend to stabilize and subsequently gradually decrease, while imports of clean technologies advance. As a result, the US energy trade balance is expected to remain negative throughout the period, hovering around US$130 billion until 2050.
The European Union is expected to reduce its energy-related trade deficit by 29% by 2035, mainly due to a drop in crude oil imports and an increase in electric vehicle exports. Even so, competition with China for global electric mobility markets is likely to remain intense.
Fossil fuel trade enters structural decline.
Another conclusion of the study is that the global trade in fossil fuels, currently sustained mainly by crude oil and its derivatives, should remain stable at around US$3 trillion until 2030. From then on, the trend is for a prolonged decline until 2050.
The Economic Transition Scenario also indicates that, although natural gas trade shows growth during the period, it does not compensate, in monetary terms, for the reduction in demand for oil.
Even with the projected contraction, fossil fuels continue to account for more than half of global energy flows for much of the analyzed period.
In BNEF's Net Zero Scenario, which considers the implementation of policies capable of leading the world to net-zero emissions by 2050, global fossil fuel trade falls to less than US$1 trillion by 2040.
Sales of electric vehicles and batteries more than triple.
The value of the global trade in electric vehicles and batteries is expected to reach US$880 billion in 2035, compared to US$234 billion in 2024, representing more than triple the market in just over ten years.
This progress occurs within the central scenario of the BNEF, which assumes that the costs of clean technologies will continue to fall at the same rate observed in recent years and that no new relevant climate policies will be implemented by governments during the analyzed period.
According to the consultancy, with the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, the market for vehicles with internal combustion engines is expected to fall to US$340 billion in 2035, a 39% decrease compared to 2024 levels.
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