There is less than a month to go before photovoltaic modules and batteries increase in price in Brazil and several international markets. However, the price hike will not begin in April: it has been underway since the end of last year and is expected to gain momentum with a change in Chinese fiscal policy that has already been announced, including by [the relevant authority]. Canal Solar.
That's because, starting April 1st, China will cancel VAT refunds (Value-Added Tax), a tax incentive granted to exports. Until then, certain products in the photovoltaic chain benefited from a tax refund of up to 9%, a mechanism that helped Chinese manufacturers reduce the final price of this equipment in the international market.
With this, the incentive will be completely eliminated for photovoltaic modules starting April 1, 2026. In the case of batteries, there will be a transition: the reimbursement will be reduced from 9% to 6% between April and December 2026 and subsequently eliminated on January 1, 2027.
In practice, manufacturers will no longer receive this tax credit, a cost that tends to be incorporated into export prices. The measure directly affects markets that are highly dependent on imports, such as Brazil – where more than 90% of the equipment used in the solar sector is manufactured in China.
Chinese government cancels subsidy for modules and batteries, impacting the Brazilian market.
The increase has already begun for other reasons, but April should intensify the movement.
O Canal Solar spoke with Kleber Pinho, CEO of I'm Energy, and Sergio Polesso, managing partner of PHB SolarTo understand the current scenario, executives say the Brazilian solar market has been facing successive price adjustments since the end of 2025, driven mainly by the increase in the cost of inputs, especially silver.
In this context, the end of Chinese tax incentives is just one more component within a broader cycle of price readjustments. According to them, further adjustments are expected in March, related to the continued rise in raw material costs and the recovery of profit margins by manufacturers.
Regarding VAT, the effects should be felt subsequently. "The scenario points to a renewed perception of increases throughout March, intensifying in April," explains Pinho.
Polesso points out that, in the last three months, the price of photovoltaic modules has already accumulated an increase of nearly 35%. "I'm only talking about the module itself. The final impact on the kit is smaller, but April should add a new layer of pressure," he states, referring to the end of VAT refunds for Chinese manufacturers.
According to executives, starting in April the market will see a new price adjustment for solar kits, combining the continued rise in input costs and the impact of the discontinued Chinese tax incentive.
"Excluding VAT, the expected increase is around 30% in the kit price. Adding the end of the 9% incentive, which should translate to an increase of approximately 5%, we can talk about a total price adjustment of around 35% for the solar kit," he commented.
Solar energy remains competitive.
Even with the upward trend, executives emphasize that the competitiveness of solar energy is not compromised. "Solar energy will continue to be an excellent alternative both for those who want to reduce energy expenses and for those seeking investment opportunities," highlights Pinho.
Polesso points out that, historically, prices remain lower than in the pre-pandemic period. “Before the pandemic, a Watt kit ranged between R$ 3,20 and R$ 3,50. We reached R$ 0,90 at the lowest point. Today, it's between R$ 1,30 and R$ 1,40. We could reach R$ 1,70 or R$ 1,80 this year.”
For him, the payback It remains attractive. "Back then it was four years, it dropped to two, and it could go back to two and a half or three years. It's still worth investing 100% in solar energy," concludes the executive.
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It's sad, clean energy should be encouraged by the government, including for families earning up to R$5.000,00, because the electricity bill weighs heavily on family budgets.