Climate projections indicate that the second half of the year should be marked by above-average temperatures, with the possibility of an El Niño event forming at the end of 2026 – a phenomenon associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters and with direct effects on rainfall patterns and temperatures in Brazil.
According to Desirée Brandt, executive partner and meteorologist at Nottus, even if El Niño does not consolidate in the classic way, the warming of the ocean tends to be sufficient to alter the climate pattern observed last year, with significant impacts on economic activity.
The year began under the influence of a weakening La Niña, with a trend towards neutrality in the coming months and a gradual increase in Pacific temperatures from mid-year onwards.
For the next quarter, the forecast points to a gradual reduction in chuvas In the central region of the country, this is typical of the transition to autumn. In the south, precipitation is expected to become more frequent from the end of March and throughout April, with no indication, so far, of extraordinary volumes.
However, starting in the second half of the year, the advance of warming in the Pacific increases the risk of irregular rainfall in central Brazil and episodes of intense heat.
On warmer days, electricity consumption tends to increase significantly, driven by the use of air conditioning systems, which puts pressure on the system's operation – especially during peak hours, when operational flexibility is more limited.
At the same time, the likelihood of severe weather events increases, especially in the South. Intense rainfall in a short period of time, strong winds, and storms can cause damage to urban infrastructure and power grids.
"For the electricity sector, the combination of drought and extreme events increases the complexity of operations, puts pressure on reservoirs, and demands more rigorous risk management in the networks," says the meteorologist.
Recent events reinforce the warning. At the end of 2025, tornadoes in Paraná and Santa Catarina caused destruction of electrical infrastructure.
In December, a hailstorm hit Erechim (RS), while an extratropical cyclone caused gales in the South, Southeast and Mato Grosso do Sul, with gusts reaching 105 km/h at Pico do Couto (RJ) and 96 km/h in the Congonhas airport region, in São Paulo, according to INMET.
In São Paulo, the cyclone left 4,4 million people without power on December 10th, according to the utility company Enel São Paulo. In some cases, power restoration took approximately 50 hours after the blackout.
all the content of Canal Solar is protected by copyright law, and partial or total reproduction of this site in any medium is expressly prohibited. If you are interested in collaborating or reusing part of our material, please contact us by email: redacao@canalsolar.com.br.
Comments
Comments are moderated before publication.Comments should be respectful and contribute to a healthy debate. Offensive comments may be removed. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the author. Canal Solar.