The ONS (National Electric System Operator) forecasts growth in load demand throughout the SIN (National Interconnected System) until the end of 2025, with particular emphasis on the North and South subsystems. This data is included in the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin, which covers the week of November 29th to December 5th.
According to the report, the projected load for December 2025 is 82.225 MWmed, an increase of 2,8% compared to the same period in 2024, which recorded 80.805 MWmed. The North region shows the highest projected increase, with growth of 9,8%, followed by the South (5,4%), Northeast (2,5%) and Southeast/Central-West (0,8%).
- Photo: ONS/Disclosure
According to the Director-General of ONS, Marcio Rea, the increase in load reflects the rise in temperatures with the arrival of summer. “With the arrival of summer and the rise in temperatures, the trend is for an increase in load demand in the coming months. The Operator continues to monitor the scenarios and adopt the necessary operations to ensure full satisfaction of society's demands,” he explains.
Load increases, but reservoirs remain under pressure.
Alongside the increase in demand, data from the ONS (National System Operator) shows that water storage levels in reservoirs remain below ideal levels, especially in the Southeast and Northeast regions, which concentrate a large part of the installed capacity.
The EAR (Stored Energy) projected for the end of December indicates that only the Southern subsystem should end the month with a volume above 60%, reaching 65,8%. In the North, the projection is 54,6%, while the Northeast should reach 48,5% and the Southeast/Central-West, 45,7%.
Meanwhile, the ENA (Natural Inflow Energy), which indicates the volume of water reaching the basins, also remains below the Long-Term Average: 81% in the Southeast/Central-West, 75% in the North, 62% in the South, and 51% in the Northeast.
This combination of increasing demand and limited supply of hydroelectric power could put pressure on the electrical system if weather conditions do not reverse. Depending on rainfall patterns and consumption, the ONS (National System Operator) may have to resort to thermal power dispatch to ensure a balance in supply.
CMO remains equalized.
ONS also points out that the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost), used to define the dispatch order of power plants, remains equalized throughout the country, fixed at R$ 337,53 for all subsystems.
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