Autumn officially begins this Friday (20), with rainfall forecast to be below the historical average in most of the North, Northeast, Southeast and Central-West regions.
According to an analysis by Tempo OK, this scenario increases the risk of water shortages, especially given the lowest levels recorded in the reservoirs since the summer.
In the Southeast region, the Cantareira System – one of the largest water supply complexes in the country – currently has about 40% of its storage capacity, compared to 60% during the same period last year.
Effects on the electricity sector
For the electricity sector, the reduction in rainfall raises an alert. During the wet season, below-average rainfall has already contributed to maintaining high energy prices, with the PLD (Price of Settlement of Differences) reaching around R$ 418/MWh in all regions of the country at the end of February.
The expectation is that, with the start of the dry season in April, prices will remain under pressure, which could lead to the activation of tariff flags and impact consumers' electricity bills.
Maria Clara Sassaki, spokesperson for Tempo OK, points out, however, that renewable energy sources should perform well starting in the second half of April, albeit with regional variations.
"In May, irradiance tends to be slightly above average in these areas, with rainfall shifting southward; in June, irradiance tends to be close to the historical average, although there are uncertainties," he explains.
Autumn is a period of transition.
Maria points out that autumn is, by nature, a transitional season, which increases the complexity of weather forecasts. The shift from the La Niña phenomenon to El Niño also contributes to increased uncertainties in long-term models.
"We are living in a period of uncertainty, so meteorological monitoring of rainfall and temperatures is essential to reduce risks and minimize impacts," he concludes.
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