Regulatory changes and soaring energy prices have been slowing the growth of the free market, a trend that is expected to intensify further throughout 2026.
The latest figures released by CCEE show that 20.586 consumers left the regulated market between January and November 2025 – a decrease of 13,13% compared to the same period in 2024.
In November 2025, only 915 shipments migrated to the free market, about a third of the flow recorded in January of the same year, when the movement was still strong.
The contrast with 2024 is evident. In that year, the number of consumers in the free market grew by 236% in 12 months, with 26.834 loads migrating. The record influx was driven by a combination of historically low energy prices and the easing of free market rules, which, starting in January 2024, allowed access for all high-voltage consumers.
2025 started strong, with 3.020 shipments migrating in January alone, but the following months saw a gradually decreasing flow.
According to Vinícius David, a market research specialist at the consulting firm Envol, the slowdown is a direct consequence of the new price level. Between 2022 and 2024, spot market prices hovered around R$ 50,00 to R$ 60,00/MWh, which encouraged migration.
However, starting in September 2024, prices rose significantly, exceeding the R$ 300/MWh mark.
Among the factors that contributed to this movement is the increased perception of risk in the sector, following the collapse of two trading companies – 2W Energia and Golden Energia.
Furthermore, since January 2025, the sector has been operating with significant changes in computational pricing models, such as the introduction of the hybrid Newave and the update of CVaR.
The practical effect was a more conservative bias, putting pressure on the PLD (Difference Settlement Price) upwards and reducing the profit margins generated by the cost difference between the regulated market and the free market.
"Thus, when there is an increase in the PLD price, coupled with this value approaching the prices charged by the main distributors and a scenario of greater risk aversion on the part of the market as a whole, the result is a reduction in the potential for migration of new consumers," David analyzed.
A challenging year for the free market.
The expert assesses that 2026 will be even more challenging due to changes in the rules for contracting incentivized energy. With the publication of Law 15.269/2025, new consumers are now prevented from accessing discounts on the TUSD (Tariff for Use of the Distribution System) associated with incentivized energy, further reducing the economic attractiveness of the free market.
This scenario is compounded by the frustration of weather expectations. Since the start of the wet season in October, the regime of chuvas It remained below historical averages, especially in the Southeast, reinforcing the prospect of high prices in 2026.
This interpretation is corroborated by analyses from Dcide and BBCE. According to BBCE, the climate situation led to an increase of over 20% in energy prices, with particular emphasis on the monthly assets for April (+21,30%) and May (+19,31%), in addition to the product for the first half of 2026 (+16,68%) and the annual contract for 2026 (+15,60%).
Dcide points out that the price of conventional energy for the period from February to April is around R$ 340/MWh, with a weekly variation of 21,74%, a monthly variation of 28,89%, and an accumulated increase of more than 301% for the year. In the case of incentivized energy, prices for the same period are around R$ 270/MWh, with an annual increase of 218,68%.
Greater competition among trading companies.
Despite the adverse environment, David believes that migration should not stagnate completely in 2026. The expectation is for greater competition between traders, with strategy adjustments.
“What we see is that some companies will indeed have to give up part of their margins. Whether it's due to the resumption of old contracts, or in the case of retailers that have generating plants in their structure, the trend is towards greater flexibility in margins in relation to the PLD (Price of Energy in the Spot Market) or market prices, as a strategy to gain market share. This movement already considers, in fact, the prospect of opening the market to low-voltage consumers.”
Data from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) reinforces that interest in the free market remains relevant: at least 7 loads have already informed distributors of their intention to migrate in 2026.
Furthermore, the expert projects an increase in migration between retail marketers. With greater maturity, consumers tend to compare contracts, assess risks, and seek better commercial conditions.
“The migration from the regulated market to the free market tends to lose momentum. Conversely, the switching of retailers may grow. Recent experience already shows a significant volume of this movement, which could intensify throughout 2026,” concluded David.
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An answer
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