The Brazilian market for solar energy and battery storage is heading towards a year of major changes in 2026. On one hand, international pressures are expected to raise equipment costs.
On the other hand, the advancement of distributed generation, the strengthening of the behind-the-meter (BTM) model, and the growing demand for energy backup reinforce the relevance of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in the national electricity matrix.
The analysis comes from Harry Neto, Director of Solar, BESS & Building Business at WEG, who shared a strategic vision through a video on social media. According to him, the international situation, especially involving China, will be decisive for price behavior starting in the second quarter of the year.
“We have already seen an increase in the prices of photovoltaic modules since the end of last year. Now, with the Chinese government suspending the 9% exemption on export tariffs, these panels will be fully taxed starting in April,” he stated.
The measure also affects solar inverters and storage systems, with a 3% tax. However, the modules are expected to feel the biggest impact.
"In the second quarter, there should already be at least a 9% increase, in addition to the increase that has been occurring since last year," the expert emphasized.
Distributed generation gains momentum in the residential sector; power plants slow down.
Distributed generation (DG) continues to be the driving force behind the national photovoltaic sector, particularly the residential segment, which is showing strong traction, in contrast to the slowdown in the pace of new, larger-scale power plant projects.
“These plants are mostly idle, with few projects in GD0 and GD1 that require grid reinforcement. At the same time, there is competition with already completed plants and an oversupply in the high remote consumption market,” Harry explained.
As a result, investors have opted for solutions closer to the point of consumption, taking advantage of the migration to the free energy market, where consumers can directly negotiate their contracts.
“We are seeing a surge in migration to the free market alongside the load, the so-called Behind the Meter model. This involves connecting solar generation directly to the load, complementing it with BESS systems to operate off-peak and serve as backup,” he analyzed.
Demand for batteries grows with a focus on safety and cost savings.
One of the central points of the analysis is the increasing value placed on batteries as a backup and energy management system, a direct reflection of recent power outages in various regions of the country.
“After the blackouts we saw last year, there is strong support for the idea of adding batteries to both residential and commercial buildings. They act as a backup and also allow for savings by shifting energy consumption from peak to off-peak.”
Harry It highlights that the rise in energy tariffs, driven by regulatory burdens, tends to maintain the attractiveness of distributed generation (DG) systems with storage.
“The cost of energy will continue to rise. This maintains the viability of distributed generation projects with BESS, especially now with hybrid inverters in the residential market,” he added.
In the commercial sector, Harry observes a technical maturation in the use of batteries.
"The commercial segment is going even further. It's already working with revenue stacking, meaning it uses the battery for multiple purposes simultaneously, such as backup, power savings during peak hours, and even demand support," he commented.
Large-scale power plants stalled, but BESS auction could unlock the market.
In the large-scale power plant segment, the scenario is one of stagnation. One of the obstacles is curtailment, a phenomenon in which part of the generation is disconnected from the grid due to structural restrictions.
"The market is quite slow, mainly due to curtailment issues. This is holding up many projects and creating uncertainty," he pointed out.
In response, the sector is eagerly awaiting... BESS auction announced for April 2026, specifically aimed at enabling large-scale storage systems that alleviate the overload on the electrical grid.
"This auction will be crucial to resolving this bottleneck. It should open new avenues and prepare the grid for a new cycle of expansion of centralized solar energy," he stated.
Perspectives: Solar is more expensive, but more strategic.
Despite rising equipment costs, Harry Neto believes the sector is moving towards technical and strategic maturity, with new business models gaining traction and greater synergy between generation and consumption.
“The market will not slow down. On the contrary, we will see a transition. Fewer speculative projects and more integrated solutions with batteries, backup, free market and efficiency,” he predicted.
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