IEA reduces projection for hydrogen production by 24,5% by 2030

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its projection for global low-carbon hydrogen production in 24,5 by 2030%.

According to the new analysis, production potential is expected to reach 37 million tonnes per year, down from the 49 million tonnes/year estimated in 2024 based on announced projects.

The pace of expansion has been slowed by high costs, regulatory uncertainty, still-limited demand, and slow infrastructure development. Despite the scenario of delays and cancellations, the IEA projects that low-emission hydrogen production will continue to show significant growth through the end of the decade.

The conclusions are contained in the 2025 edition of the Global Hydrogen Review, published this Monday (15).

"The latest data indicates that the growth of new hydrogen technologies is under pressure due to economic turmoil and political uncertainty, but we still see strong signs that their development is advancing globally. To help maintain growth, policymakers must maintain support programs, use available tools to foster demand, and accelerate the development of necessary infrastructure," said Fatih Birol, the agency's executive director.

Global hydrogen demand reached nearly 100 million tons in 2024, a 2% increase compared to 2023, in line with the growth in energy consumption. Most of this increase, however, was met by fossil-based hydrogen, which still dominates the oil refining and industrial sectors.

Fossil hydrogen remains more competitive in price, driven by the falling price of natural gas and the rising cost of electrolyzers. The IEA, however, projects that this price gap should narrow by 2030 as technological costs increase.

China leads the production of electrolyzers

The report highlights China's position as the main driver of the expansion of electrolyzers aimed at producing low-emission hydrogen. The country accounts for 65% of the global capacity already installed or with final investment decisions, and accounts for almost 60% of the global manufacturing capacity for these devices.

Chinese industry, however, may face challenges: current production capacity, exceeding 20 GW per year, is well above observed demand.

Another point raised by the study is that the cost of installing Chinese electrolyzers outside the country is not significantly lower than that of equipment from other manufacturers, when factors such as transportation and tariffs are considered.

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