TR Soluções projects that the changes introduced by Law 15.269/25 could generate an average reduction of 7% in electricity tariffs for residential consumers over the next 12 years.
According to the company, the tariff relief results from an estimated 11% drop in the TE (Energy Tariff) and a 4% drop in the TUSD (Distribution System Usage Tariff).
The study assesses the tariff effects of nine provisions in the new legislation, all with a direct and measurable impact on electricity bills. These are:
- creation of the Complementary Resource Charge (ECR);
- new criteria for allocating CDE GD funds;
- End of discounts for incentivized energy for new free market consumers;
- Redistribution of CDE Usage between voltage levels (HV, MV and LV) starting in 2026;
- termination of the quota system for generation concessions with future expiration dates;
- contracting the Candiota III thermoelectric power plant as a reserve energy source;
- Opening the market to low-voltage consumers;
- Coverage of retroactive curtailment liabilities;
- Contracting 3 GW of hydroelectric power of up to 50 MW as reserve energy.
To estimate the potential impact, TR Soluções compared two average tariff trajectories for residential consumer units, as shown in the graph below:
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Source: TR Solutions. SETE Platform - The company's regulatory director, Helder Sousa, explains that the impacts do not occur simultaneously, which led the team to analyze the data in a combined manner. In the short term, he highlights, the main change falls on the TUSD (Transmission System Usage Tariff), influenced by the ceiling for the CDE (Energy Development Account).
In the case of TE, the effects are distributed over the medium and long term, driven by the new allocation of CDE GD, the end of the quota system and, above all, by the new assumptions for contracting reserve energy.
Click here And check out the complete methodology used by the company specializing in technology and tariff analysis.
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