Even if the energy transition has not yet left the initial blocks, once started, the renewables will surpass fossil fuels. From now on, the most the additions de energy be wind e solar, which will grow 9 and 13 times, respectively, by 2050.
This is the conclusion of the seventh edition of the report Energy Transition Perspective, from DNV, published this week. According to research, electricity production will more than double by 2050, bringing efficiency to the energy system. The energy mix split between fossil and non-fossil is currently 80/20, but will move to a 48/52 split by mid-century.
The study pointed out that solar installations will reach a record 250 GW in 2022, as well as wind energy will provide 7% of global grid-connected electricity and installed capacity will double by 2030, despite the supply chain.
However, in the short term, the report noted that transmission and distribution grid constraints are emerging as an obstacle to the expansion of renewable electricity and related distributed energy assets such as grid-tied storage and charging points. of EVs (electric vehicles) in many regions, including North America and Europe.
“There are short-term setbacks due to rising interest rates, supply chain challenges and changes in energy trade due to the war in Ukraine, but the long-term trend for the energy transition remains clear: the global energy system will move from an energy mix that is 80% fossil-based to one that is around 50% non-fossil-based in the space of a single generation,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV.
“This is fast, but not fast enough to meet the Paris goals. Ahead of COP 28, DNV will publish its 'Pathway to Net Zero' report, showing that technology is not the main challenge, but rather the incentives to drive the rapid deployment of renewables and storage and the disincentives to reduce fossil fuel emissions,” he added.
Other highlights
According to DNV, over the past five years, fossil fuels have accounted for only half of new energy demand globally, despite rapid development of renewable capacity.
Between 2017-2022, renewables met 51% of new energy demand, while the remaining demand was met by fossil fuels.
Another point emphasized by the study is that limiting global warming to 1,5°C is less likely than ever. To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions would have to be halved by 2030, but DNV predicts that this will not even happen until 2050.
According to the company, such emissions will be just 4% lower than current emissions in 2030 and 46% lower by mid-century. Energy-related CO2 emissions continue to reach record levels and are only expected to peak in 2024, which is effectively the point at which the global energy transition begins.
“Globally, the energy transition has not yet begun, if by transition we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms,” said Eriksen.
“It is clear that the energy transition has begun at sectoral, national and community level, but, globally, record emissions from fossil energy are on track to increase even further next year”, concluded the executive.
