The expansion of renewable energy sources should continue to be the main driver of the Brazilian electricity sector in the next decade. The draft of the PDE 2035 (Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2035) foresees significant growth in wind and solar generation until 2035, including accelerated advancement of distributed micro and mini-generation (DMM) and the entry of large-scale storage into the energy matrix.
According to figures presented for public consultation last Thursday, the 12th, at a joint event promoted by the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) and EPE (Energy Research Company), wind power is expected to expand its installed capacity by approximately 50% over the next ten years, while centralized solar power is expected to grow by 45%.
Meanwhile, MMGD (Distributed Generation) is expected to practically double, with a projected increase of 95%, jumping from 40 GW to 78 GW by 2035. During the same period, the plan also indicates the projected addition of up to 7 GW of batteries to the electrical system over the next decade, highlighting the advancement of storage as a structural element of this expansion.
According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), this is the first time that the two instruments have been presented together to the public, with consultations open for 30 days from the date of publication.
New planning cycle
The simultaneous launch of the consultations for the 2035 Energy Development Plan (PDE 2035) and the 2055 National Energy Plan (PNE 2055) was highlighted as a reinforcement of the strategic planning of the energy sector. Prepared by EPE, the documents are cited as a technical basis for short, medium, and long-term decisions, as well as supporting public policies associated with the energy transition and regulatory predictability.
The plans structure decisions and organize the sector's expansion based on technical expertise, highlighting that the planning supports the National Energy Transition Policy (PNTE).
According to the ministry, the two plans also align with instruments such as the National Energy Transition Plan (Plante) and the National Energy Transition Forum (Fonte).
Expansion points to growth of up to 100 GW.
In the case of the PDE 2035 (Energy Development Plan 2035), the draft reinforces the leading role of renewables and projects significant growth in energy infrastructure over the decade. EPE (Energy Research Company) estimates that Brazil can expand its installed electricity sector capacity by up to 100 GW by 2035, a movement sustained mainly by the expansion of solar, wind, distributed generation, and storage.
The draft also foresees a more limited expansion of hydroelectric generation, with the addition of 4 GW in hydroelectric plants (growth of less than 5%), in addition to 6 GW in new small hydroelectric plants (PCHs).
Even with the diversification of the electricity matrix, the document maintains the assessment that Brazil will continue with a highly renewable energy matrix: the estimate is that renewability will remain above 50%, a level described as about four times the average of OECD countries.
Another key point is the expected increase in consumption. According to the plan, final energy consumption could grow by about 20% in the next decade, reflecting the evolution of economic activity and the expansion of energy demand.
In addition to projections of installed capacity, the draft of the PDE 2035 also indicates the volume of investments needed to sustain this expansion. The plan estimates that the energy sector may require investments of around R$ 3,5 trillion by 2035.
Differences between PDE 2035 and PNE 2055
Although complementary, the two instruments have distinct scopes and purposes. The PDE 2035 has a 10-year horizon, is updated annually, and is indicative in nature, presenting projections and analyses to assess the adequacy of supply and the sector's expansion needs. The plan reflects the most likely scenario, based on existing policies and current conditions.
The National Energy Plan 2055, on the other hand, has a 30-year horizon, with publication every five years, and a strategic character, aimed at supporting structural choices in the energy sector in the long term.
In this case, the study works with multiple scenarios and possible paths, incorporating uncertainties and technological trends, as well as evaluating transformations such as the increasing electrification of the economy and the reduction in the weight of petroleum derivatives.
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