Brazil could triple its current operational capacity in solar energy (22,9 GW) and surpass the 66 GW mark of installed capacity by the end of 2027. This was the projection made in December 2022 by the IEA (International Energy Agency) for the Brazilian market.
However, this estimate has already been surpassed more than a year and a half ahead of schedule. Data updated this week by ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) shows that the country has already reached approximately 67 GW of installed solar energy capacity.
The number takes into account the sum of the installed capacity in large-scale power plants (centralized generation) and in small self-generation systems installed in homes, businesses, and industries (distributed generation).
When it released the projection, the IEA estimated that between 40 GW and 44 GW would be added by distributed generation by the end of 2027 – a level that has already been surpassed. Currently, this modality is approaching 46 GW installed in Brazil.
In the case of centralized generation, the international agency expected the country to reach between 22 GW and 26 GW by the end of 2027. This should be achieved without much difficulty, since Brazil currently has around 21,5 GW in this segment.
According to industry professionals, the numbers could be even more impressive if it weren't for some regulatory and operational challenges faced by the source, such as issues related to flow reversal in distribution networks and forced generation cuts at large power plants, a practice known in the industry as curtailment.
These power cuts have already resulted in energy losses equivalent to the annual consumption of approximately 26 million Brazilian households.
The Chairman of the Board of Directors of ABSOLAR Ronaldo Koloszuk, from the Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association, believes that without these obstacles, the expansion of solar energy in the country could be even more advanced.
“This is the most competitive and quickest source to deploy, and it also aligns with decarbonization goals. Brazil, due to its abundance of solar resources, has a strategic opportunity to lead this movement,” he emphasizes.
Already the CEO of ABSOLARRodrigo Sauaia states that Brazil's solar potential can be further exploited with regulatory advancements and new infrastructure investments.
"The power outages and difficulties connecting small systems raise an alert about the need to modernize planning and accelerate investments in the electricity sector's infrastructure, especially in transmission lines and new ways of storing the clean and renewable energy generated in abundance in the country," he says.
In this context, Sauaia emphasizes that the integration between solar power generation and battery storage systems can play a strategic role in increasing the flexibility of the Brazilian electrical system.
"In this sense, the combination of solar generation with battery storage systems represents a strategic opportunity to expand supply, increase the security of the electrical system's operation, reduce costs for consumers, and contribute even more consistently to Brazil's development," he concludes.
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What could hinder massive solar energy production would be hail, very strong winds, continuous cloud cover, rain, intense cold, the season, and the lack of automatic sun tracking… but there are regions without these unsuitable conditions, although far from the major markets and with inefficiencies in the transmission routes. However, batteries with better capabilities help production, and it would have to be a nationalized industry producing with maximum profits, escaping foreign control, creating jobs and exports…