Contrary to what was expected, the payback time for photovoltaic systems in the country fell even after the new distributed generation rules were introduced (Law 14.300/22).
The main factor that contributed to this result was the reduction in equipment prices, which fell 17% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year.
The conclusion is contained in the Strategic Study of Distributed Generation, prepared by Greener, a market intelligence company specializing in the sector.
The return on investment time is an important indicator of the competitiveness of photovoltaic systems in Brazil. The shorter the period, the more attractive it is to invest in your own energy production.
“We had an improvement in payback conditions and this happened in almost all states”, said Greener CEO, Márcio Takada, during the study presentation event in São Paulo, this Wednesday (20).
To reach this conclusion, Greener analyzed two scenarios, establishing a comparison between the payback of GD 1 (before law 14.300 came into force) and GD 2 (after the law). GD 1 are the systems that had the Access Opinion before January 7, 2023 and GD 2, after that date.
Residential systems
In the base case of residential systems (4 kWp), there was a 15% reduction in payback under the conditions of the GD 2 scenario. A residential system in São Paulo, for example, which previously had a payback of 4,7 years, fell to 4 years in the GD 2 scenario in 2023.
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Trading Systems
In the case of a commercial system (50 kWp), there was a 20% reduction in payback in the GD 2 scenario compared to GD 1. In Minas Gerais, for example, the return on investment for a commercial system fell from 3,6 years to 2,7 years.
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Industrial systems
The same happened with industrial systems (300 kWp), whose payback fell by 13% in the post-14.300/22 scenario. A system in Bahia went from 6,2 years to 5,4 years in return period.
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An answer
I would like more information about GD 2 for EPCs, type, market, costs, how the free market interferes or not in our prospecting, how to react when we offer a client who is already in the free market, energy by subscription or shared…
For example, we are in a futile negotiation with a large pharmacy chain that is reluctant to build UFVs for its own consumption, as it is looking for and negotiating an average discount of 25% with shared energy UFVs, as this sector is not yet part of the free energy market, only in 2026, but it found this alternative, frustrating our investments... Thank you...