Brazil is expected to end 2025 with 11,86 GW of solar power added to its electricity grid, combining distributed generation (DG) and centralized generation (CG) segments. This estimate was made by [organization name missing]. Canal Solar, based on data from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency).
Of the total projected capacity, 9,05 GW is expected to come from distributed generation, a modality that includes photovoltaic systems installed on rooftops, facades, or small plots of land, both residential and commercial and rural.
Meanwhile, centralized generation, consisting of large solar power plants connected directly to the SIN (National Interconnected System), is expected to contribute 2,81 GW during the period.
Increase in residential and commercial installations sustains distributed generation growth.
Of the total installed distributed generation capacity, residential consumers accounted for approximately 57% of connections, maintaining the pattern observed in previous years, where small-scale systems lead the expansion of distributed generation. The C&I (commercial and industrial) segment also had a significant share in 2025, representing 31% of connections made that year.
Distributed Solar Power Added per Quarter (kW)
Curtailment slows growth of the centralized generation.
Despite positive expectations for the advancement of solar energy, the performance of centralized generation suffered a significant drop in 2025, leading the sector to end the year with about half the installed capacity that was added in 2024.
One of the main factors explaining this contraction is the increase in curtailment. According to a recent report by Canal SolarIn November 2025, approximately 28% of all energy that was diverted from the Brazilian electrical grid came from photovoltaic power plants.
The impact has been more pronounced in regions such as the Northeast and North, which concentrate a large portion of centralized solar projects due to high solar irradiance.
In these locations, the growth in generation has outpaced the expansion of transmission networks, especially in areas far from major load centers. In addition to directly impacting generators' revenue, the risk of curtailment has led investors to postpone or resize projects while awaiting new transmission auctions or the release of funds for structural reinforcements already underway.
The scenario also puts pressure on ANEEL and the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) is prioritizing infrastructure and integration solutions to avoid future bottlenecks, especially with the expected strong influx of renewable energy sources in the coming years.
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