According to the global report “Sectorial Atlas”, released by Alliance Trade, in 2023, it is estimated that around US$2,8 trillion will be invested in energy, over US$1,7 trillion allocated to clean energy, including renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency improvements and electrification.
The remainder, just over $1 trillion, will go to providing uncontrolled fossil fuels and electricity, of which about 15% will go to coal and the rest to oil and gas.
The study analyzed the risks of non-payment for companies in 18 sectors of the economy, in 70 countries, and shows that investments in clean energy were driven by a variety of factors, including improved economic conditions at a time of high and volatile fuel prices. fossils.
“With regard to oil and gas, global oil demand is projected to reach more than 100 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, compared to 91,2 mb/d in 2020, driven by increasing consumption in developing economies, especially in Asia”, said Felipe Tanus, Credit Director at Allianz Trade in Brazil.
The economists who developed the study analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the energy sector and assessed it as a medium risk for companies:
Forces:
- Increased investment in clean energy;
- Improving the economy at a time of high prices and volatile fossil fuel prices;
- Greater political support through various instruments;
- Strong alignment of climate and energy security goals;
- Focus on industrial strategy as countries seek to strengthen their sovereignty.
Weaknesses:
- Geographic imbalances in investment;
- Weak electrical grid infrastructure in many economies, including the US;
- Uncertainties about long-term demand for fossil fuels;
- High initial expenses required for investments in clean energy;
- High financing requirements;
- Vulnerability to geopolitical risks.
The main points of attention for the sector, according to the report, are:
- Increase in interest rates;
- Green regulation, an opportunity for renewables and energy and a risk for oil and gas;
- Public infrastructure policies;
- Geopolitical developments (war in Ukraine, China-USA, Middle East, etc.).
The study also points out that, due to fluctuating oil prices, geopolitical tensions and the ongoing energy transition, the outlook for global oil and gas remains uncertain.
“The sector continues to be profitable, with the global oil and gas industry earning around US$4 trillion in 2022. Therefore, the profitability of companies in the sector depends heavily on oil prices,” commented Tanus.
Exclusive
The Allianz Trade Economic Research Sector Risk Rating assesses the risk of non-payment by companies across 18 sectors in 70 countries around the world.
Search is measured on a four-level scale, from Low to High. Industry risk assessments are based on the forward-looking assessment of four key determinants – demand, profitability, liquidity and business environment – using internal Allianz Trade data and expert judgments, as well as hard data from secondary sources.
