Seven associations in the electricity sector have joined forces to pressure the sector's top management to relax the criteria used in energy pricing models.
Next Wednesday (10), the CMSE (Electric Sector Monitoring Committee), chaired by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, will make a decision that could have important repercussions on the operating costs of the SIN (National Interconnected System).
The market expects the Committee to present new risk aversion parameters at this meeting. Since 2025, the system has adopted the so-called CVaR 15/40. In simple terms, this means that the model has started to assign greater weight to the most unfavorable hydrological scenarios, making price formation more conservative.
According to several market participants, this change contributed to increased price volatility and higher costs associated with operating the system.
According to the manifesto "Energy Security in the Right Measure," signed by associations representing energy traders, generators, consumers, and self-producers, the most appropriate parameter would be CVaR 15/30.
According to the document, this configuration would provide a reduction of R$ 85/MWh in the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) and a negative tariff impact of 1,74%, ensuring the system's supply even in an extremely adverse hydrological scenario.
The study considers the impacts of thermal generation contracted in the capacity auction (LRCAP) held on March 18 and 20, which enabled approximately 20 GW of capacity, significantly expanding the resources available to ensure the security of the system.
The central point of the debate is the cost-benefit ratio. According to the associations, maintaining the current criteria would increase Brazilians' energy bills by approximately R$ 3 billion to add only 0,4 percentage points to water storage in hydroelectric reservoirs.
"The challenge lies in ensuring energy security to the appropriate extent, adopting technical, economic, and systemic criteria that preserve the reliability of supply without imposing additional costs on society," the manifesto argues.
The report by Canal Solar It was found that the study supporting the associations' arguments was prepared by Volt Robotics. One of the conclusions pointed out is that the 15/25 parameter manages to deliver a higher level of storage and lower cost when compared to the 15/30 and 15/35 pairs.
However, since CVaR 15/25 was not included in the ONS (National Electric System Operator) technical note, including this alternative could generate additional noise in the discussion.
"Maintain the current parameters that were adopted in a context without carrying out the LRCAP "It puts pressure on free market prices for businesses and industries in Brazil, in addition to causing a significant tariff increase for residential consumers with inflationary effects," the manifesto says.
The backdrop is that traders and consumers have a direct interest in this issue. The current crisis faced by some trading companies and the difficulties in contracting energy are at the heart of the debate. According to market participants, the definition of these new technical parameters could significantly influence energy price behavior from 2027 onwards.
The manifesto is signed by:
- Brazilian Wind Energy Association (ABEEólica)
- Brazilian Association of Investors in Self-Production of Electric Energy (Abiape)
- Brazilian Association of Large Energy Consumers and Free Consumers (Abrace Energia)
- Brazilian Association of Energy Traders (Abraceel)
- National Association of Energy Consumers (Anace)
- Cogeneration Industry Association (Cogen)
- National Energy Consumers Front
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