Bifacial modules have become a standard in large projects in Brazil. According to the new strategic study of greener, 100% of the contracts mapped in 2020 in the ACR (Regulated Contracting Environment) and ACL (Free Contracting Environment) will use double-sided technology. The consultancy found that 3,9 GW of photovoltaic plants, both in the free and regulated environments, are already using or will use bifacial panels, which corresponds to 54,4% of the total mapped projects.
According to the survey, which compiled data up to January 2021, single-sided polycrystalline technology accounted for 44,4%, followed by thin film, with 1,0%, and single-sided monocrystalline, with 0,1%. “Panels that use double-sided technologies produce more energy and, therefore, present best cost-benefit for soil plants, compared to single-sided models”, said Felipe Santos, sales manager at Canadian Solar.
“Such technology reduces the LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy), which is the sum of the plant's total investment and its operating cost (CAPEX + OPEX) divided by the amount of energy generated during its useful life”, added Santos.
Imported vs local modules
Another point highlighted by Greener is that solar modules used in the projects are mostly imported, representing almost 90% of the accumulated amount. In 2020/2021, 97% of the supply of contracted panels came from international sources.
String inverters
Of the contracts mapped by Greener in 2020/2021, around 66% will use string inverters. According to the report, in 2020, for example, 385 MW of string inverters with power greater than 150 kW were cleared in Brazil – a volume 76% higher than that imported in 2019. A considerable part of this volume was destined for centralized generation plants, a fact that can be confirmed by the increase in the share of inverters of this technology in 2019 compared to last year.
Furthermore, the consultancy identified that 826 MW of photovoltaic plants, both in the ACR and ACL, are already using or will use string inverters, which corresponds to 22% of the total mapped projects. This topology represented around 10% at the end of 2019, which demonstrates, for the study, the growth of this solution in GC solar plants in Brazil.
ACL
The survey also indicated that Pernambuco was the state that grew the most in terms of power granted to the ACL (Free Contracting Environment) in 2020, with an increase of 1.236%. In total, 13,3 GW of grants for photovoltaic projects were mapped in the Free Market until January of this year – with more than 8,4 GW having PPAs (energy purchase agreements) signed.
Below are the largest solar complexes for the Free Energy Market:
- Janaúba Solar Park (MG) – 1,0 GW;
- Futura Solar Park (BA) – 687,5 MW;
- AC Solar Park (MG) – 680 MW;
- Jaíba Solar Park (MG) – 620 MW;
- Surubim Solar Park (PE) – 600 MW.
ACR
Regarding the regulated market, the company pointed out that of the 4,6 GW of projects for this segment, around 1,2 GW are still under construction or have not started construction. As for applications in the ACR, Brazilian development banks, especially BNB and BNDES, are still the main financing lines for solar projects in 2020 and 2021. However, new instruments, such as debentures, have entered the radar of entrepreneurs.
Centralized generation
Another analysis done by Greener is about GC (centralized generation). Estimates of ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) indicate a total of almost 15 GW by 2025, that is, an amount considerably higher than that registered in the PDE 2029 of the EPE (Energy Research Company). Most of these are projects destined for the ACL. Only 1,5 GW will be destined for the ACR. More than 13 GW of the total has not yet started construction.
Projects contracted via auctions
The study data also showed that 66% of the projects contracted through auctions are already in operation – 73% of which are located in the Northeast region. Piauí is the state with the highest contracted capacity – 1.147 MW. The over-contracting by distributors for the coming years indicates a reduction in demand in the next auctions for the regulated market. The gain in competitiveness of incentivized sources, especially wind and solar, in the ACL should drive the expansion of generation in the coming years.
Solar source gains competitiveness
Cristiano Saboia, analyst at EPE (Energy Research Company), commented on the data presented by Greener's research and highlighted the role of the photovoltaic solar source, which with its impressive technological evolution has gained competitiveness in an accelerated manner, becoming one of the higher cost sources to one of the cheapest for energy supply.
According to him, the Reserve Energy auctions, in the beginning, and the ACR auctions, more recently, were fundamental to this development, providing long-term contracts, even at initially higher prices compared to other sources, the result of policy energy to enable the development of the sector in the country, with the generation of knowledge and the creation of production, supply, installation and maintenance chains.
“The long-term prospects are very interesting. As technological evolution and cost reduction do not seem to slow down, it is estimated that the source will gain more relevance in supplying energy for the electrical matrix of the future”, he highlighted.
Distributed generation
Saboia also spoke about DG (distributed generation) and said that expectations for this sector are positive. “Although there are regulatory changes, the prospects for installed capacity for 2030 vary between 17 GW and 25 GW, making this an investment with an attractive return.”
“Although on a smaller scale, there are also opportunities in isolated systems, for which there is even an open auction that should be held in 2021 and aims to serve 23 locations in five states (AC, AM, PA, RO and RR)”, pointed out the expert.
“Given the high cost of diesel thermoelectric generation, prevalent in these locations, it is expected that supply solutions, including photovoltaics, will be competitive, as they reduce fuel consumption, as previous studies have demonstrated,” he reported.
“Therefore, although in the short term the situation seems more challenging, due to the absence of auctions in 2020 and the prospect of low hiring in the regulated environment in the near future, in a longer horizon, with the resumption of load growth, photovoltaics will continue to be an important option in supplying energy to the Brazilian electrical matrix”, emphasized the EPE analyst.
Finally, he commented that even in this difficult scenario, the versatility of solar means that it has other opportunities, which go beyond the free market, which continues to grow, as its modularity allows access to smaller-scale markets, as has been occurring with distributed generation. , and is expected to be repeated in isolated systems.
