O Brazil is a leader in renewable energy within the G20. in total, 89% of electricity of the country came from clean fonts in 2023, by far the highest among G20 economies and three times higher than the global average of 30%. Meanwhile, almost half of the G20 fell below the global average.
Second Kostantsa Rangelova, Global Electricity Analyst at Ember, Brazil's success in achieving such a high share of renewables is mainly due to its robust hydroelectric base and the rapid expansion of solar and wind energy in recent years.
“A Hydroelectric share has fluctuated from year to year over the past decade amid variable weather conditions, making up 60% of Brazil's electricity in 2023, compared to 63% on average since 2013. Meanwhile, the share of wind and solar has grown rapidly in recent years, reaching 21% in 2023, a substantial increase of four percentage points compared to 17% in 2022 and just 5,8% in 2016”, he reported.
According to her, the Brazil recorded the world's second largest annual increase in wind and solar generation in 2023 (+36 TWh), second only to China. “The growth of photovoltaic generation of the country has been particularly impressive.”
"Increased by 72% from 30 TWh in 2022 to 52 TWh in 2023, providing 7,3% of Brazil's electricity last year. The latest monthly data shows continued strong growth this year: solar generation from January to May 2024 was 68% higher than in the same months of 2023”, pointed out the expert.
As a result of this rapid generation growth, the Brazil's solar participation grew beyond that of other G20 countries. During the 12 months from March 2023 to April 2024, the photovoltaic source generated 9,1% of Brazil's electricity, notably higher than the G20 average (6,4%).
Brazil and most G20 economies are past peak fossil energy
Emissions from Brazil's electricity sector peaked in 2014, at 114 million tons of CO2 (MtCO2). In 2023, nine years after the peak, emissions were 38% below 2014 levels, at 70 MtCO2. This represents an average decline of 6,7% per year.
Most G20 economies – Brazil plus 11 other members – are at least five years beyond peak energy sector emissions. Collectively, they represent 41% of G20 electricity generation in 2023.
“With rapid declines in emissions in many G20 countries and slowing emissions growth for the G20 as a whole, the world is approaching a new era of falling emissions from the energy sector,” Kostantsa predicted.
“However, G20 emissions are still rising. In 2023, emissions from the energy sector reached a new record of 11.881 MtCO2, an increase of 1,2% compared to 11.742 MtCO2 in 2022”, he explained.
Mature economies in the G20 are already seeing progress in decarbonizing their energy sectors. G20 EU members saw the biggest emissions drops in 2023, with France (-22%) and Germany (-19%) leading the way, thanks to strong growth in wind and solar generation and falling demand for electricity.
“Canada was an exception, although the small increase in emissions seen in 2023 was due to temporary conditions. The sharp drop in hydropower in the country created a deficit that was partially met by increased fossil generation, leading to an increase in emissions (+2%)”, reported the Ember analyst.
“Meanwhile, emerging economies – where demand for electricity is growing rapidly – are still seeing rising emissions. For these countries, wind and photovoltaic energy offer a unique opportunity to meet their growing demand as they can be deployed faster than any other source of renewable electricity and are also cheaper than fossil fuels in most countries, he highlighted.
China is close to peaking its emissions – thanks to the rapid growth of wind and photovoltaics – which would be a game changer as it was responsible for almost half of G20 emissions in 2023 and 39% of global emissions.
Brazil sets a compelling example for other emerging economies. Despite rapidly growing electricity demand, the country has managed to meet this increase with renewable sources – mainly wind and solar – over the last decade.
“Hydropower, which has been the backbone of Brazil's energy sector, stopped growing in the early 2010s, leading to a short-lived foray into gas power to meet growing demand for electricity. This has led to an increase in emissions from the energy sector. The recent wind and solar boom has reversed this, consolidating Brazil's position as a global power in renewables”, highlighted Kostantsa Rangelova.
Over the nine years since Brazil's emissions peak in 2014, wind and photovoltaic generation has increased by 135 TWh, 10% more than the country's total electricity demand (+123 TWh), thus contributing to the decline in fossil generation (-76 TWh). “The country made this possible by being an early adopter of wind and solar energy, with auctions for projects starting in the mid-2000s and introducing other supportive policies such as net metering,” he said.
According to her, Brazil has the lowest emissions per capita in the G20, a title it has held for at least two decades, except for being briefly knocked out of first place by France in 2014. The growth of renewables in Brazil has helped to quickly reduce emissions. emissions from its energy sector, from a peak of 0,56 MtCO2 per capita in 2014 to 0,33 MtCO2 per capita in 2023.
G20 countries can lead the way
At the UN's COP 28 climate conference in December, world leaders agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. This historic agreement is the most significant step towards halving global emissions this decade and maintaining the target of 1,5. XNUMX °C within our reach.
Additionally, tripling renewables will provide more stable and affordable energy compared to fossil fuels. The latest evidence shows rapid growth in renewables globally, providing greater confidence to global leaders that more ambitious targets are increasingly achievable.
According to the expert, updating the goals in NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) and implementing more effective policies are necessary to correspond to the new global reality.
“G20 countries are best positioned to lead the way. They were responsible for 84% of global energy sector emissions in 2023 and their combined emissions continue to grow. However, most G20 countries are now in a new era of declining energy sector emissions, showing what is possible,” he said.
“Brazil’s success story in rapidly reducing its energy sector emissions while meeting growing demand for electricity highlights what works – strong policy frameworks and effective use of natural resources. By following Brazil's example, G20 countries can lead the global transition to a sustainable energy future”, concluded the executive.
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Answers of 2
Very interesting area, I am part of this new world in economics.
Just knowing that the planet is being cured of a disease called pollution makes us feel more at ease.
I want to learn a lot about this area, I am very grateful to you for receiving news of this new transition that we are going through. Thank you and a big hug.
It's a shame that 90% is from China, of the amount only 1% is from a Brazilian company, WEG.