Emissions must fall before 2030 for the first time since the Paris Agreement

For the first time since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world must begin an effective reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions before 2030, according to a report released by the UN (United Nations) this Tuesday (28).

The document presents an overview of the promises made by countries to contain the climate crisis and analyzed 64 new national climate plans — so-called NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) — submitted by September 30, 2025.

These targets represent approximately 30% of global emissions and serve as a barometer of nations' progress towards the Paris Agreement — signed at COP 21, with the aim of limiting global warming to 1,5°C and avoiding extreme climate impacts.

According to the UN, NDCs are the main instrument of the global climate treaty, and the current round — called NDCs 3.0 — may represent the last real opportunity to keep the average temperature increase below 1,5°C.

First downward trajectory in emissions

The report notes that, for the first time, the set of NDCs indicates a clear trajectory for emissions reduction—not just a slowdown in growth. According to the document, implementation of the targets should lead to a peak in emissions before 2030, followed by an average decline of 11% to 24% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels.

Despite the progress, the UN warns that the current pace is still far below what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement. To keep warming within the 1,5°C limit, global emissions would need to fall by around 60% by 2035. In the current scenario, the targets presented would result in an average reduction of just 17%.

Acceleration needs to start now

For the UN, maintaining this downward trajectory in emissions depends on a more intense collective effort in the coming years, especially from developed countries, which must ensure that progress occurs in a fair and balanced manner.

The expectation is that COP30, scheduled to take place in Belém (PA), will serve as a milestone for acceleration, with countries presenting concrete plans to transform targets into real policies, especially in sectors that still concentrate the majority of emissions — such as energy, transportation and agriculture.

According to the UN, the conference in Brazil represents a decisive moment to strengthen global climate cooperation and demonstrate that nations remain committed to the spirit of the Paris Agreement.

Check out the published report by clicking here.

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