EN 
PT_BR 
According to a report released by the ONS (National Electric System Operator), the SIN (National Interconnected System) load is expected to grow by 20% for the year 2025 when compared to the maximum load seen in 2019, varying between a maximum of 26% for the North and the minimum of 18% for the Southeast and Central-West regions.
Analyzing this forecast, Bernardo Marangon, specialist in electrical energy markets and director of Exata Energia, said that to achieve such a scenario an energy transition is necessary, combined with the insertion of new technologies and electric mobility.
“Investment in energy generation will play a fundamental role in making this transition possible. I am sure that renewables will be protagonists in this process, which is why the topic of storage will gain more strength in the coming years”, highlighted Marangon.
The expert also highlighted that the SIN load played a relevant role in this period of the Covid-19 pandemic and significantly influenced the price of energy.
ONS plan
The SIN Medium-Term Electrical Operation Plan in the 2021 to 2025 version of the ONS shows that the estimated investments needed to meet demand in Brazil are approximately R$ 12.8 billion.
The set of works in this cycle indicates the construction of around 3 thousand km of new transmission lines and 22,275 MVA of increase in transformation capacity in new and existing substations.
Furthermore, approximately R$ 6.8 billion in contributions will be the subject of the next transmission auction no. 01/2020, scheduled to take place in December 2020.
“When there are these projections that show the need for growth, the impact on the solar sector is very positive. Because, precisely, it demonstrates the need to hold regulated auctions and the need to expand the photovoltaic matrix, whether in DG (distributed generation) projects or in energy self-production projects”, said Pedro Dante, specialist lawyer in the Energy area of Demarest.
According to Dante, it is also important to highlight that the sector is finally able to finance these projects in the ACL (Free Contracting Environment), much more effectively than in the past.
“This shows that banks use this system. And when you have an increase in demand, more expensive tariffs and financing for these solar projects, the tendency is for the market to heat up very strongly in the coming years. All companies are looking, even more so now due to the pandemic, to reduce costs. And solar projects have the characteristic of providing, in addition to sustainability, cost reduction”, he added.
ONS measures
For the first two years of the cycle, 2021-2022, the ONS document indicates solutions and/or operational measures, such as: the need for SEPs (installation of Special Protection Systems), changes in network configuration or generation dispatch thermal due to electrical restrictions.
For the other years, that is, between 2023 and 2025, the edition brings an analysis aimed at adapting the works schedule and identifies which projects, already determined by EPE (Energy Research Company), must undergo a change in the date of need or even a recommendation for EPE to define a new structural solution.
By 2025, the state of São Paulo is expected to receive the largest volume of investments, reaching around R$ 3.5 billion, followed by the states of Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul, whose planned contributions are R$ 2.5 billion and R$ 1.8 billion, respectively. The sum of the three represents more than 60% of the entire investment planned in PAR/PEL.
