Planning the expansion and operation of the Brazilian electrical system without considering the impacts of climate change could be costly — and jeopardize the country's energy security.
This is the main conclusion of the study "Impacts of Climate Change on Electricity Generation Planning," released this week by... EPE (Energy research company).
The study shows that including climate scenarios in the strategic planning of the national electricity sector can reduce operating costs by up to 13% and prevent distortions that compromise the system's balance.
The report indicates that global warming tends to alter rainfall patterns, affecting the availability of water resources: projections point to a reduction in flows in the Southeast, North, and Northeast subsystems—where the country's main reservoirs are concentrated—which could hinder integrated water management in Brazil.
Furthermore, the study predicts a 3% to 6% increase in electricity demand during the warmer months, due to the greater use of cooling equipment, precisely when water supply tends to be more limited.
“Considering different climate scenarios in energy planning is essential for a country with a high share of renewable sources, such as Brazil. Incorporating these variables contributes to reducing operational costs and dealing more precisely with the uncertainties associated with resource availability,” assesses EPE.
The study is available. here.
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