The CMSE (Electric Sector Monitoring Committee) met last Tuesday (3) to define a set of actions aimed at ensuring that the country's energy demand is met throughout this year, especially considering the lack of rain in the SIN (National Interconnected System), with emphasis on the North region.
Climate models indicate uncertainty regarding the configuration of the phenomenon La niña and indicate below-average rainfall for the months of September, October and November in the North and Central-West regions, in addition to temperatures above the historical average throughout Brazil.
Against this backdrop, the ONS (National System Operator) highlighted the need to use rreserve resources to meet maximum system demand, which usually occurs in the late afternoon and early evening.
Among the actions approved by the CMSE, the continuity of the dispatch of the natural gas thermoelectric plants Santa Cruz and Linhares throughout the month of November stands out. In addition, there is the possibility of flexible dispatch of the UTEs Port of Sergipe, Santa Cruz and Linhares, with the aim of optimizing the SIN’s operational costs.
The articulation to make the exceptional operation of the intermediate reservoir of the Belo Monte hydroelectric plant, with a minimum flow rate of 100 m³/s.
Additionally, efforts are planned to anticipate the entry into operation of important transmission lines, such as LT 500 kV Porto do Sergipe – Olindina – Sapeaçu, LT 500 kV Terminal Rio – Lagos (c.1 and c.2), and LT 345 kV Leopoldina 2 – Lagos, with the aim of guaranteeing full power flow in the months of September to December.
The ONS also intends to adopt less restrictive performance and safety criteria for the operation of the SIN, in order to maximize the use of available resources and ensure the service of loads between September and November.
Despite the adverse scenario, the ONS reports that the SIN's energy storage level is at 58%, with the expectation of reaching between 42% and 49% at the end of the dry period, which eliminates the risk of supply shortages.
Hydrology and Storage
For September, in the worst-case scenario, ENAs (Natural Inflow Energy) are expected to be below the historical average in all subsystems: 48% in the Southeast/Central-West, 46% in the South, 36% in the Northeast and 42% in the North. For the SIN as a whole, the expected inflow is 43% of the MLT (Long-Term Average), the second lowest value recorded for the month in 94 years.
The expectation for the end of September is storage levels of 47,1% (Southeast/Central-West), 43,8% (South), 49,3% (Northeast) and 75,5% (North), in the lower scenario.
Expansion of Generation and Transmission
In August, the expansion of installed electricity generation capacity was 571 MW, and that of transformation capacity was 1.683 MVA. In 2024, the expansion totaled 7.096,5 MW of installed centralized generation capacity, 2.409,4 km of transmission lines and 10.730 MVA of transformation capacity.
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