The CMSE (Electric Sector Monitoring Committee), linked to the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy), held a meeting on Wednesday (8), where it discussed measures to guarantee the country's electricity supply until the end of the dry period of 2025 and beyond.
Based on data presented by the ONS (National Electric System Operator), the situation of the reservoirs remains within expectations, with projections that ensure the stability of the SIN (National Interconnected System) until March 2026.
According to the ONS, the reservoirs are performing better than last year, which contributes to Brazil's energy security, even in a challenging scenario with low wind generation and unfavorable hydrological conditions.
In some cases, additional thermal generation will be necessary to meet demand, in addition to efforts to maximize the production of hydroelectric plants, such as the Itaipu HPP and the plants on the São Francisco River.
Preparations for high-impact events
Another point discussed was the preparation of the electrical system to meet the upcoming major national events, such as the PND (National Teacher Test) and the ENEM (National High School Exam).
The Committee requested that the ONS present a detailed plan on the operation of the electrical system during these events.
Hydrological conditions and forecasts for October
Regarding hydrometeorological conditions, the month of September presented below-average rainfall in most of the SIN basins, with the exception of the South and North regions, where rainfall was more significant.
Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters) presented forecasts for the coming weeks, with expectations of rainfall at the historical average for the Paraná River basin and below average in the São Francisco, Araguaia-Tocantins, Madeira, Uruguai and Jacuí River basins.
For the month of October, forecasts indicate that ENA (Influent Natural Energy) should be 70% of the Long-Term Average for the SIN, which represents the 16th lowest value for the month in the last 95 years.
At the end of September, storage levels of 50%, 91%, 54%, and 82% were recorded in the Southeast/Central-West, South, Northeast, and North subsystems, respectively. In the SIN, storage levels were approximately 56%.
For the last day of October, according to prospective studies presented, the expectation is 44,7%, 93,9%, 47,6% and 69,4% of EARmáx (maximum Stored Energy), considering the superior scenario for the Southeast/Central-West, South, Northeast and North subsystems, respectively.
In the lower-case scenario, EARmax is forecast at 43,5%, 66,4%, 47,6%, and 69,2%, in the same order. For the SIN, the forecast ranges from 47,1% to 50,0% of EARmax.
The Committee also highlighted investments in expanding generation and transmission in Brazil. By September 2025, the country had already added 5.960 MW of installed generation capacity and 3.625 km of new transmission lines.
An important milestone was the start of operations of the Manaus-Boa Vista transmission line, which connects the state of Roraima to the SIN, with a length of 725 km and a capacity of 500 kV.
Attention to Acre and regional actions
A ANEEL also presented a report on the performance of electrical interconnection in the state of Acre, especially in the regions of Feijó, Tarauacá and Cruzeiro do Sul, which were recently integrated into the SIN.
The agency detailed actions to improve the quality of electricity supply and reduce forced shutdowns.
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