The ONS (National Electric System Operator) projects that Brazil will end the month of January with a slowdown in electricity consumption in the SIN (National Interconnected System) and in three of the country's four subsystems, in addition to improved hydrological conditions, with rising reservoir levels.
The data is part of the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin for the operating week between January 24th and 30th. The forecast for load growth in the SIN (National Interconnected System) was revised by the Operator to 1,6% (84.631 MWmed), below the 2,3% estimated in the previous week.
There was also a reduction in projections for the Northeast region, with 7,8% (14.437 MWmed), compared to 8,0%; the North region, with 7,1% (8.201 MWmed), compared to 7,8%; and the Southeast/Central-West region, with -0,1% (47.072 MWmed), compared to 1,2%.
The Southern subsystem maintained its deceleration trend, with a contraction of 1,3% (14.921 MWmed), compared to 1,9% in the previous week. The data compares the projections for January 2026 with the consumption verified in the same period of 2025.
According to the general director of ONS, Marcio Rea, the reduction in demand is directly related to weather conditions. "The drop in temperatures in several regions of the country, especially in the Southeast, due to the arrival of a cold front, directly influenced the load demand," he said.
Reservoirs show improvement.
The report also points to an improvement in ENA (Natural Inflow Energy) – an indicator that measures the volume of water reaching hydroelectric reservoirs and, consequently, their potential generation capacity. By the end of the month, three subsystems are expected to register levels above 60% of the LTA (Long-Term Average), which represents the historical average of flows:
- South: 83% of MLT
- North: 66% of MLT
- Southeast/Central-West: 64% of MLT
- Northeast: 44% of MLT
The percentages of EAR (Stored Energy) – which indicate the current level of the reservoirs – show the South with the most comfortable situation, reaching 63,9%. This is followed by the North (58,8%), Northeast (53,4%) and Southeast/Central-West (46,4%).
In operational terms, EAR levels below 40% are usually considered areas of concern, while percentages below 30% trigger an alert for hydrological risk, potentially requiring increased dispatch of thermal power plants.
Generation costs
The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost), which represents the cost to meet the next unit of demand in the system and directly influences the price of energy in the market, was as follows:
- South: R$ 309,74
- Southeast/Central-West: R$ 308,90
- North: R$ 289,25
- Northeast: BRL 177,28
Click here to check the report in full.
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