Electricity consumption in Brazil is expected to end January 2026 with a 5,6% increase compared to the same period last year.
The projection comes from ONS (National Electric System Operator) and appears in the new Monthly Operation Program (PMO), with data released for the operating week between January 10 and 16.
The increase in consumption is directly linked to the high temperatures recorded in various regions of the country, which have led to a rise in the use of air conditioning and other refrigeration equipment, directly impacting the demand for energy in the SIN (National Interconnected System).
Reservoir levels in the South are at an alert level.
According to the ONS (National System Operator), the negative highlight is the situation of the reservoirs in the Southern region, which are operating at only 29,5% of their maximum stored energy (EARmáx), the lowest level among the four regions of the system.
ONS points out that heat helped maintain the system's balance at the end of 2025.
Check the storage levels by region:
- South: 29,5%
- Southeast/Central-West: 58,3%
- Northeast: 74,6%
- North: 77,9%
This critical level in the South raises a red flag, especially because of the frequency of droughts and the lower hydrological predictability in the region.
The ONS (National System Operator) is already considering strategies for preserving stored energy and the strategic use of thermal power plants to reduce the risk of imbalances.
CMO rises in all subsystems and exceeds R$ 295/MWh.
The average weekly values of CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) registered a sharp increase in all subsystems of the SIN (National Interconnected System).
In the Southeast/Central-West and South regions, the CMO (Marginal Cost of Operation) rose from R$ 119,10/MWh to R$ 296,18/MWh. In the Northeast, the cost increased from R$ 119,10/MWh to R$ 295,73/MWh. In the North, the average value jumped from R$ 289,25/MWh to R$ 296,18/MWh.
According to the ONS (National System Operator), the significant increase in the CMO (Marginal Cost of Operation) reflects changes in the operating conditions of the electrical system, particularly the reduction in inflows and the need for greater thermal dispatch.
These factors contribute to increased operating costs and should directly influence the behavior of the PLD (Settlement Price of Differences) in the coming weeks.
Renewable sources help, but operation requires balance.
Despite the pressure on reservoirs, hydroelectric generation continues to meet most of the country's load, accounting for about 65% of demand.
Renewable sources, such as solar and wind power, are also performing positively, especially in the Northeast, where they operate with high productivity.
The document also points out that the complementary use of thermal power plants has been essential to maintain the reliability of the system during peak periods and in regions with transmission restrictions.
Preventive measures adopted by the ONS
Given the scenario of heat and increased consumption, the ONS (National System Operator) has been adopting a series of preventive actions to guarantee a balance between generation and demand:
- Increased thermal dispatch in critical regions;
- Preservation of reservoirs with lower recovery capacity;
- Monitoring load on transmission lines;
- Real-time operational adjustments to prevent overloads;
- Assessment of the use of reserve energy and storage systems.
Energy transition and the need to strengthen transmission
The report also highlights that the advancement of intermittent renewable sources — such as solar and wind power — demands more flexibility and capacity from the electricity grid.
With a portion of its generation concentrated in regions with less developed infrastructure for transmission, the Brazilian electrical system faces increasing operational challenges.
The ONS (National System Operator) emphasizes that the transmission auctions planned for the coming years will be fundamental to resolving bottlenecks and increasing electricity security, especially during periods of high demand and strong climate variability.
all the content of Canal Solar is protected by copyright law, and partial or total reproduction of this site in any medium is expressly prohibited. If you are interested in collaborating or reusing part of our material, please contact us by email: redacao@canalsolar.com.br.
