Free market energy consumers should prepare for a significant increase in costs starting in 2026. According to estimates from ANACE (National Association of Energy Consumers), the increase could reach R$65 per MWh, which represents a real impact of between 5% and 12% on electricity expenses.
The main factor behind this increase is the effects of PLV 4/2025 (originating from Provisional Measure 1.300/2025). The proposal increases charges related to capacity reservation, subsidies for renewable sources, discounts on distribution and transmission tariffs, and benefits for distributed generation, among other mechanisms that increase costs passed on to consumers.
"The analysis reflects an extremely worrying trend not only in the lack of addressing the problems in the electricity sector by the Executive and Legislative branches, but also in the creation of new beneficiaries that increase pressure on the amounts paid by consumers," warns ANACE's CEO, Carlos Faria.
The survey, prepared to guide companies in their 2026 budget forecast, also projects an additional impact of R$15 to R$20 per MWh related to free energy for low-income families with monthly consumption of up to 80 kWh.
Another point of attention is the additional cost of energy from Angra I and II, estimated between R$7 and R$12 per MWh, in addition to the exemption from the CDE (Energy Development Account) for low-income consumers, which should add R$0,50 to R$1 per MWh to the tariffs of other users.
While recognizing the social relevance of energy access policies, Faria emphasizes that increased expenses for companies have broad economic effects. "The importance of increasing benefits for low-income consumers is undeniable. But the serious impact of these benefits on businesses cannot be ignored," Faria reinforces, noting that rising energy costs are detrimental to business sustainability, directly impacting job creation and the growth of the Brazilian economy, and affecting the prices of products and services, with an inflationary impact.
ANACE also draws attention to structural factors that could maintain the upward trend in the coming years, such as the expansion of the free market, the extension of Proinfa contracts, and the accelerated advancement of distributed generation, elements that could add between R$4 and R$8 per MWh to consumers' final costs.
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