A study published by Global Carbon Budget It portrays a harsh reality in the face of efforts to reduce carbon emissions. According to the report, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are expected to increase by 1,1% in 2025.
Although the energy transition has become a concern and one of the main objectives on a global scale, the study shows that, even with the progress, the measures taken are still not enough to offset the growth in energy demand.
The study was conducted in cooperation with several universities and over 90 other institutions around the world, and was published along with a new article in the journal Nature, entitled “Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget” (Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget).
Deforestation: 4 billion tons of CO₂ per year
According to the research, the deforestation It is one of the main contributors to the increase in gas emissions. With the decrease in carbon sinks, ecosystems capable of absorbing CO₂ from the atmosphere, the tendency is for the level of emissions to increase.
Corinne Le Quéré, a Royal Society researcher at the UEA School of Environmental Sciences, points to the need for immediate action:
"Efforts to address climate change are visible, with 35 countries managing to reduce their emissions while growing their economies, double the number from a decade ago, and with significant progress in reducing dependence on fossil fuels in other regions."
Still, progress is too fragile to translate into the sustained declines in global emissions needed to address climate change. The emerging impacts of climate change on carbon sinks are worrying and reinforce the need for urgent action,” he states.
The research concludes that the weakening of so-called carbon sinks has been responsible for an 8% increase in CO₂ concentration since 1960.
Glen Peters, senior researcher at CICERO, stated:
"It has been 10 years since the Paris Agreement was negotiated, and despite progress on many fronts, fossil CO₂ emissions continue to grow relentlessly. Climate change and variability are also visibly affecting our natural carbon sinks. It is clear that countries need to raise their level of ambition. We now have strong evidence that..." clean technologies They help reduce emissions and are economically competitive compared to fossil fuel alternatives.”
Budget stretched to the limit
The study shows that some countries are expected to increase their emission levels even further this year: China (+0,4%), India (+1,4%), the United States (+1,9%), and the European Union (+0,4%). In the transport sector, emissions are expected to grow by 6,8% in international aviation, exceeding pre-COVID levels, but should remain stable in maritime transport.
Between 2015 and 2024, permanent deforestation was responsible for approximately 4 billion tons of CO₂ per year. Given these figures, research shows that the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1,5°C is practically exhausted, considering the emission levels projected for 2025.
Currently, 170 billion tons of CO₂ remain, which, in theory, would be sufficient to maintain the climate target of 1,5°C. However, experts believe that this is no longer an achievable reality.
“With CO₂ emissions still rising, keeping global warming below 1,5°C is no longer plausible,” says Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, who led the study.
"The remaining carbon budget for 1,5°C, of 170 billion tons of carbon dioxide, will be exhausted before 2030 at the current rate of emissions. We estimate that climate change is now reducing the combined land and ocean carbon sinks, a clear signal from Planet Earth that we need to drastically reduce emissions," the study concluded.
By the end of 2025, the Global Carbon Budget projects 38,1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) coming from fossil fuels.
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