EN 
PT_BR 
Photovoltaic DG (distributed generation) should receive investments of around R$ 70 billion over the next 10 years, according to a study by EPE (Energy Research Company) in Ten-Year Energy Plan 2030.
According to the survey, the installed capacity of these systems could reach 24.5 GW in 2030, in a scenario without major changes to the current rules for remunerating the energy generated.
The forecast is more optimistic than a scenario outlined by EPE last year, in its Ten-Year Plan 2029, which signaled 11.4 GW in DG at the end of the ten-year period and contributions of almost R$ 50 billion.
The projection of the state-owned company, linked to the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy), is based on a so-called “summer scenario”, in which the government would maintain a policy of great incentive for these systems, making subtle changes to the current regulation.
In another case, the “spring scenario”, with a reduction in tariff incentives for distributed generation, investments would total R$ 50 billion by 2030, while installed capacity would reach 16.8 GW.
Increase in photovoltaic systems
The study also pointed out that the number of consumers with their own generation systems would be 3 million in the next 10 years in the optimistic scenario and 2 million in the more moderate forecasts.
The state-owned company also assessed that photovoltaic solar panels should account for 79% of the energy delivered by GD in 2030, with hydroelectric systems in second place, with 11%.
According to EPE, distributed generation is expected to contribute 4.6% and 3.2% of the total energy load in 2030, in the summer and spring scenarios, respectively.
More optimistic projection
According to the most optimistic projection, the DG growth curve in Brazil it could be even greater, reaching 35.8 GW of installed capacity by the end of the next decade. In this scenario, full maintenance of current rules is considered. In other words, full compensation of the tariff components and without the application of a binomial tariff.
GD continues to grow in Brazil
Since 2013, photovoltaic DG grew at an average rate of 230% per year in Brazil, according to data released by ABSOLAR (Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association).
Distributed generation in the country also registered a increase of 77,83% in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period last year. This is what an exclusive survey carried out by Canal Solar showed.
Currently, according to ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency), DG installations total around 3.66 GW in installed capacity in Brazil.
