A solar radiation is expected to increase between 2% and 8% in most of Brazil by 2040, with the exception of the South region, which should see a reduction of around 3%.
This is what the study “Reducing uncertainties in climate projections on solar energy resources in Brazil”, published by scientists from INPE (National Institute for Space Research) and the Unifesp (Federal University of Sao Paulo).
According to scientists, the availability of solar radiation will have greatest expansion in the Central-West and Southeast regions in Brazil, mainly close to large urban centers.
The study aims to reduce uncertainties about future solar radiation on the surface and, consequently, photovoltaic yield in Brazilian territory. The researchers highlighted that The main focus of the study was the use of solar energy to generate electricity.
To carry out the study, the scientists used an extensive database, including information from satellites, weather stations and climate model predictions.
According to INPE, the greatest growth in the availability of solar radiation should occur in the Central-West and Southeast regions of Brazil, with highlight for Minas Gerais, where an increase of up to 5% is expected in the spring months.
Furthermore, there is a trend of increasing productivity of photovoltaic generation in much of Brazil, with greater benefits in the Amazon, which is not served by the SIN (National Interconnected System).
In INPE's assessment, it is expected that the rstudy results can support regional development strategies to increase the resilience of the Brazilian electrical system to future climate conditions and help Brazil in the energy transition process, essential in combating global environmental changes.
O project is supported by FAPESP (São Paulo State Research Support Foundation), CNPq (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development) and CAPES (Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel).
Considering the areas of reduced photovoltaic potential in Porto Alegre and Fortaleza, André Gonçalves, researcher at INPE, mentions that the northern coast of the Brazilian Northeast (coast of Piauí, Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte) and Rio Grande do Sul are the regions of the country with the greatest availability of wind generation.
Therefore, hybrid generation, combining solar and wind energy to produce electricity, can be an alternative to minimize the impact of the reduction in photovoltaic productivity in these two regions.
Below is the table published by INPE that summarizes the variation in the productivity of solar generation systems in the study areas.
| Region | Area | Variation in 2040 | Change in 2100 (best case scenario) | Change in 2100 (+ pessimistic scenario) |
| Amazon | Manaus (AM) | + 0,4 % | + 1,3 % | + 3,5 % |
| Amazon | Boa Vista (RO) | + 0,4 % | + 1,0 % | + 3,0 % |
| Amazon | Colniza (MT) | + 0,4 % | + 1,8 % | + 2,8 % |
| Northeast | Fortaleza (CE) | -0,2% | -1,0% | -1,8% |
| Northeast | Petrolina (PE) | + 0,1 % | + 0,4 % | + 1,0 % |
| Center – Southeast | Brasilia DF) | + 0,3 % | + 1,0 % | + 2,0 % |
| Center – Southeast | Belo Horizonte (MG) | + 0,6 % | + 1,3 % | + 4,7 % |
| Center – Southeast | Sao Paulo-SP) | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sul | Porto Alegre (RS) | -0,3% | -0,7% | -2,5% |
| Region | Area | Variation in 2040 | Change in 2100 (best case scenario) | Change in 2100 (+ pessimistic scenario) |
| Amazon | Manaus (AM) | + 0,4 % | + 1,3 % | + 3,5 % |
| Amazon | Boa Vista (RO) | + 0,4 % | + 1,0 % | + 3,0 % |
| Amazon | Colniza (MT) | + 0,4 % | + 1,8 % | + 2,8 % |
| Northeast | Fortaleza (CE) | -0,2% | -1,0% | -1,8% |
| Northeast | Petrolina (PE) | + 0,1 % | + 0,4 % | + 1,0 % |
| Center – Southeast | Brasilia DF) | + 0,3 % | + 1,0 % | + 2,0 % |
| Center – Southeast | Belo Horizonte (MG) | + 0,6 % | + 1,3 % | + 4,7 % |
| Center – Southeast | Sao Paulo-SP) | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sul | Porto Alegre (RS) | -0,3% | -0,7% | -2,5% |
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