The ONS (National System Operator) reduced its projection for energy load growth in the SIN (National Interconnected System) in July.
The new estimate points to a 2,1% increase compared to the same period in 2025, totaling an average of 77.862 MW. The previous week's expectation was for a 2,3% increase.
The data is included in the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin for the operational week of July 18-24. The revision indicates a slightly more moderate outlook for national demand, although the subsystems show distinct behaviors.
The Northeast is expected to register the highest proportional growth, at 8,8%, with an estimated load of 13.546 MW on average. In the North, the forecast is for an increase of 7,6%, to 8.662 MW on average.
In the South, the load should remain stable compared to the previous year, at an average of 13.643 MW. In the Southeast/Central-West region, which accounts for more than half of the country's demand, the ONS (National System Operator) projects a reduction of 0,2%, to an average of 42.010 MW.
Inflows are above average only in the South.
Among the four subsystems, only the South presents a forecast of ENA (Natural Inflow Energy) above the MLT (Long-Term Average). This indicator, which represents the energy that can be produced from the flows reaching hydroelectric plants, is expected to reach 168% of the historical average in the region.
In the Southeast/Central-West region, the estimate corresponds to 90% of the MLT (Maximum Land Coverage). Although below average, this percentage is higher than those projected for the North and Northeast regions, which are 64% and 61%, respectively.
Reservoirs remain above 80% in three regions.
Even with inflows below the historical average in most of the country, reservoirs remain at high levels. The Northern subsystem has the highest projected EAR (Stored Energy), with 91,6% of its maximum capacity at the end of July.
Next in line are the South, with 86,2%, and the Northeast, with 82%. The Southeast/Central-West region, which concentrates the largest storage capacity of the SIN (National Interconnected System), should end the month with 63,6%.
The Marginal Operating Cost (CMO) was calculated at R$ 182,63/MWh in the Southeast/Central-West, South, and Northeast subsystems. This indicator represents the cost required to meet an additional megawatt-hour of demand in the system. In the North, the projected value is higher: R$ 289,25/MWh.
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