IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) announced this Tuesday (3) that the PIB (Produto Interno Bruto, in Portuguese), the sum of all wealth produced in the country, grew by 1,4% in the second quarter this year compared to the first quarter.
Compared to the same period in 2023, growth was 3,3%. Featured of the economy between April, May and June of this year was left with the performance of manufacturing, with an increase of 1,8% in the second quarter compared to the first, followed by sector of services, whose growth was 1%.
PIB growth in the period, however, caused the market to increase bets that the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of central bank should raise the rate Selic in 0,5 pp (percentage point) at this month's meeting, scheduled to take place on September 17-18.
The move comes even after the clear indication from the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, that if a cycle of monetary tightening in the country is resumed, it will be gradual.
If the market speculations if confirmed, the the country's basic interest rate will rise of the current 10,50% for 11% per year bringing impacts for various sectors of the national economy, including the solar energy sector.
Bernardo Marangon, director of Prime Energy, company of the Shell Group, explains that the PIB growth, especially in the industrial sector, is generally a positive sign of economic recovery.
However, highlights that this brings with it the possibility of an increase in inflation, which worries investors and analysts.
“With inflation in mind, the market begins to speculate about the need for an adjustment in the Selic rate by the Central Bank to contain a possible overheating of the economy”, highlights.
For solar energy sectorr, a possible increase in Selic would mean higher financing costs for new projects, which could slow down the adoption of the source by both companies and residential consumers, who would depend on more expensive credit to invest in the installation of solar panels.
“Therefore, the sector must prepare for an environment of higher interest rates, seeking financing alternatives and strategies that mitigate these impacts”, assesses Marangon.
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