Megatrends for 2030: a good time to look ahead

The year 2021 began with hope due to the start of vaccination in several countries. But, at the same time, with apprehension due to the advance of the second wave of the pandemic.

However, we need to be sure of one thing: the pandemic will pass and the opportunities will continue right there, in a future that gets closer every day.

Thinking about the future is even more important after the election of Democrat Joe Biden, who in his first days in government imposed a shift in American politics, towards multilateralism in foreign policy and the return of the United States as a protagonist in the fight against global warming. .

Therefore, economists, investors, governments and companies are focusing on what the major trends should be for 2030. A group of experts, sponsored by 3M, analyzed more than 180 international articles related to technology, sustainability, urbanization, among others.

Here in Brazil, FIESP/CIESP carried out the same task and published its conclusions, emphasizing the opportunities for our country. There is a strong convergence in the two studies: the climate crisis, the growing demand for energy and food and the emergence of new technologies. These themes will guide the society we will live in in 2030. I will take the liberty of summarizing them in three points:

1) Greater demand for food

For Brazil, the growth in global demand for food represents a huge opportunity. The FIESP/CIESP study highlights that, despite the country having great capacity in agribusiness, it will need to develop new technologies that expand its penetration abroad.

A growing challenge is the desertification that is advancing in important regions of the country. To achieve this, the water reuse and desalination industries must grow. We know that solar energy will play an increasing role, both in providing energy in the countryside and in reducing carbon emissions that accelerate desertification.

Today, the solar source already has an installed power of 32% greater than the sum of all coal-fired thermoelectric plants and nuclear plants in Brazil, which total 5.6 GW.

2) Increase in demand for energy

Brazil has one of the largest energy potentials in renewable energy in the world, which mainly includes hydroelectric sources. At the same time, it practically does not use its enormous potential in solar energy. Therefore, the FIESP/CIESP report highlights that solar energy is a great opportunity.

In 2020, we witnessed vigorous growth of 60% in installed DG (distributed generation) capacity, even during the pandemic. The growth of this segment in Brazil also represents a great opportunity for job creation.

During last year, as pointed out by ABSOLAR (Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association), more than 86 thousand jobs in the sector. Despite this growth, only 0.5% of the 85 million Brazilian consumers use solar energy.

3) New technologies, productivity growth and urbanization

Information technology and artificial intelligence will shape a new pattern of production and consumption in the world in 2030. Smart cities will use energy more rationally, with less waste. At the same time, domestic consumption, as we saw during the pandemic, is migrating strongly to online commerce and will consolidate itself in this channel.

As a result, new opportunities for products, services and jobs linked to distribution, culture, the creative economy and health – which will have to cope with an older population – will flourish in increasingly larger and populous cities.

Urban mobility will primarily be powered by electric vehicles. This reinforces the trend of greater demand for energy, representing a clear opportunity for distributed solar generation and domestic energy storage.

This economy will be aimed at consumers aware of their role in sustainability and combating global warming. This new consumer profile will favor the transformation towards a green and sustainable economy, which may not be complete in 2030, but will certainly be halfway there.

There is a curious article on Forbes Magazine, by Afdhel Aziz, this year recommending some lifestyle changes that everyday people can adopt to help solve the climate crisis:

• Consume more solar energy;
• Consume less animal proteins and;
• Only invest in funds committed to the green economy.

For all these reasons, solar energy is at the center of a profound transformation that will shape Brazil and the world in 2030. Even though 2021 is full of concerns, we need to look to the future and work to make investments happen, putting our projects into practice. The opportunities are there, they are many and they promise a better world for future generations.