The national electricity load – which corresponds to consumption plus losses in the system – is expected to reach an average of 83.803 MW in October, representing an increase of 2,5% compared to the same month last year, according to projections from the ONS (National System Operator) released last Friday (26).
According to the operator, progress is expected in all subsystems, with emphasis on the North, which has the highest growth rate:
- North: +6,5% (8.808 MWmed)
- Northeast: +3,3% (14.140 MWmed)
- South: +1,9% (13.750 MWmed)
- Southeast/Central-West: +1,8% (47.105 MWmed)
In addition to the load, the ONS also updated its projections for ENA (Inflowing Natural Energy) through the end of October. In all submarkets, the expectation is for indices below the MLT (Long-Term Average), a measure that compares natural river flow with historical standards.
- South: 95% of MLT
- Southeast/Central-West: 65% of MLT
- North: 57% of MLT
- Northeast: 51% of MLT
According to ONS Director General Marcio Rea, the situation is in line with seasonality: "During the month of October, rainfall is close to average in the main river basins of the SIN (National Interconnected System), with temperatures ranging from normal to above average across the country. These conditions are consistent with the time of year, and the system has the necessary resources to meet demand."
Reservoirs also remain at comfortable levels. The Stored Energy (EAR) forecast for the end of the month indicates levels equal to or greater than 50% in three regions: South (84,2%), North (67,8%), and Northeast (50,0%). The Southeast/Central-West, which accounts for approximately 70% of the SIN's storage capacity, is expected to end October at 48,0%.
The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) is projected at R$296,82 for all subsystems.
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