With the collaboration of Manuel Mario
The global energy transition has entered a new phase: less rhetoric, but with more "aggregate load".
The data recently released by BloombergNEF as part of the Energy Transition Scenario makes it clear that the dominant driver of the next decade will not only be decarbonization, but also the accelerated electrification of the economy, driven by electric mobility, digitalization, and artificial intelligence.
By 2050, global demand for electricity is expected to grow by 75%, a trend driven by four structural forces:
- Economic growth;
- Electrification of transport;
- Increased need for cooling; and
- Rapid expansion of data centers, which are becoming central to the global energy equation.
Data centers: from marginal load to systemic demand driver
Os data centers They cease to be a sectoral externality and begin to represent a systemic risk for energy planning, since the incremental demand associated with data centers reaches 1.200 TWh in 2035 and 3.700 TWh in 2050.
By 2035, they will already account for 4,5% of global final electricity demand, almost doubling to 8,7% in 2050, and even though they are still below the demand from electric vehicles (11,2% in 2050), data centers already exceed the combined consumption of air conditioning and heat pumps (7,1%).
This dynamic presents a clear challenge: data centers require reliable, predictable, and continuous power, putting pressure on electrical systems that have historically been designed to handle more stable or seasonal loads.
Capacity installed
The paradox of the transition: to meet just the additional demand from data centers by 2035, an additional 362 GW of installed capacity will be needed globally, with 47% from renewable sources; 9% from storage; and 44% still based on fossil fuels.
The most sensitive data point, however, lies in actual generation. Despite the growth in renewable capacity, 64% of incremental generation by 2035 will come from fossil fuels, compared to 36% from renewables. (data from BloombergNEF)
This does not signal a climate setback, but rather a timing misalignment between demand growth, technological maturity, storage infrastructure, and energy security. Renewable generation, however, is growing robustly: +84% by 2030 and more than doubling again by 2050.
Electrification of transport
Electric mobility is consolidating itself as a structural driver, and global sales of electric vehicles They will increase from 17,2 million (2024) to 42 million in 2030, reaching 80 million in 2050.
By mid-century, about 2/3 of the global fleet (1,5 billion vehicles) will be electric, compared to just 4% currently. This will shift the center of gravity of the energy sector: less liquid fuels, more electricity — and, above all, more grids, more flexibility, and more efficient regulation.
Brazil at the center of a regulatory crossroads.
For Brazil, these numbers are not just global statistics; they are a strategic signal, as our country possesses rare competitive advantages such as a predominantly renewable electricity matrix, with complementary hydroelectric, solar, and wind potential, and growing international interest in green data centers and clean energy contracts.
But, on the other hand, it also carries significant regulatory risks: transmission and connectivity bottlenecks; uncertainties about storage, hydrogen, and ancillary services; contractual models that are still poorly adapted to intensive, inflexible, and long-term loads; and increasing tension between affordable tariffs, expansion of supply, and system security.
International experience demonstrates that the energy transition is not linear. It requires temporary coexistence with fossil fuels, pragmatic regulatory decisions, and sophisticated contractual instruments to correctly allocate risks among generators, intensive consumers, and the electrical system.
The energy transition is, first and foremost, a matter of regulatory and contractual governance, while the massive electrification of the economy, via electric vehicles and digital infrastructure, will transform electricity into a strategic input for the digital and industrial economy. In this context, the central challenge ceases to be merely technological and becomes legal, regulatory, and economic.
For Brazil, the success of this transition will depend less on rhetoric and more on: consistent regulatory planning; legal certainty for long-term investments; and strong integration between energy, industrial, and digital policies.
The transition is progressing. But those who fail to align regulation, economics, and strategy risk being left with the demand but lacking the necessary and intelligent energy capacity.
The opinions and information expressed are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the author. Canal Solar.
