Load demand in the SIN (National Interconnected System) is expected to maintain an upward trajectory until the end of January 2026, according to the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin for the operating week of January 3-9, released by the ONS (National System Operator).
Compared to the same period in 2025, the projection indicates growth of 1,4% in the SIN (National Interconnected System), equivalent to 84.462 MWmed. Among the subsystems, the greatest growth is expected in the North region, with an estimated increase of 10% (8.422 MWmed), followed by the Northeast, which should register growth of 6,2% (14.230 MWmed).
For the Southeast/Central-West and South regions, the ONS projects a slowdown in load, with contractions of 0,9% (46.709 MWmed) and 0,1% (15.102 MWmed), respectively. The increase in demand is directly associated with the high temperatures recorded in recent days.
“The increase in load is a direct reflection of the rise in temperatures and the more intense heat observed in recent days. However, with regard to the operation of the SIN (National Interconnected System), the latest estimates guarantee full satisfaction of society's demands, without risks to the country's energy supply,” emphasizes the Director-General of ONS (National System Operator), Marcio Rea.
Hydrological conditions and storage levels
Regarding ENA (Natural Inflow Energy), an indicator that measures the amount of water reaching the reservoirs, the Southern subsystem presents the best outlook for the end of January, with a forecast of 104% of the LTA (Long-Term Average). In the North, the estimate is 90% of the LTA; in the Southeast/Central-West, 82% of the LTA; and in the Northeast, 48% of the LTA.
As for the levels of EAR (Stored Energy), the energy contained in the volume of water in hydroelectric reservoirs, they also indicate the South as the region with the highest projected volume, with 75,3% of capacity, followed by the North (60,1%), Northeast (53,2%) and Southeast/Central-West (52%).
operating costs
For me, the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) remains unified at R$ 119,10/MWh in the Southeast/Central-West, South, and Northeast subsystems. For the North, the estimate is higher, at R$ 289,25/MWh, reflecting the operational particularities of the region.
The full PMO report can be found on the ONS website. Click here. here to check.
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