The ONS (National Electric System Operator) released the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin for the operational week of July 12 to 18, indicating a mixed scenario between a slowdown and a slight increase in load in the country.
Estimates point to a 1,3% reduction in the total SIN load (74.805 MWmed) compared to the same period in 2024. The biggest decline is expected to occur in the Southeast/Central-West subsystem, which accounts for around 70% of the energy generated in the country, with a forecast drop of 3,4% (40.807 MWmed).
The other regions show a growth trend: North: +2,9% (7.995 MWmed); Northeast: +1,4% (12.552 MWmed) and South: +0,4% (13.451 MWmed).
According to Marcio Rea, director-general of the ONS, the reduction is related to the weather. "The load behavior is within expectations for the period and associated with lower temperatures throughout the country during July. We remain attentive to the different scenarios, and the SIN is fully meeting public demand," he said.
Natural Inflow Energy and Stored Energy
The bulletin also provides updates on ENA (Influent Natural Energy) levels — which represents the potential energy generated by water reaching reservoirs — and EAR (Stored Energy), which shows the volume effectively retained for future generation.
ENA's projections for July indicate that all subsystems should remain below the Long-Term Average (LTA), except for the South region, which should reach 113% of the LTA. The remaining regions have the following indices:
- Southeast/Central-West: 82% of MLT;
- North: 66% of MLT;
- Northeast: 47% of MLT.
Despite this, the storage scenario is more favorable, with emphasis on the North, South and Northeast subsystems, with 96,1%, 88,1% and 65,8% capacity, respectively.
The Southeast/Central-West, in turn, has the lowest storage expectation, with 64,3% of capacity, which is noteworthy as it is the region with the country's main reservoirs.
According to the ONS, the CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) — the value that guides the generation cost to meet demand — is expected to be the same for the four SIN regions: R$215,46/MWh.
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