The National Interconnected System (SIN) and the Southeast/Central-West region may face significantly lower energy storage levels in April 2026, should the most pessimistic inflow scenario materialize, according to the National System Operator (ONS).
If the lower end of the inflow scenario (67% of the LTA – Long-Term Average) is confirmed, the energy stored in the Southeast/Central-West region at the end of April 2026 will be 25,8 pp (percentage points) below the value recorded in April 2025.
In the lower end of the spectrum, the projection for the SIN (National Interconnected System) as a whole indicates that stored energy will be 14,2 percentage points below that observed in the same period of 2025.
Conversely, the superior inflow scenario (98% of the MLT) would bring relief, with stored energy 20,3 pp above the April 2025 value in the SIN and 20,3 pp above in the Southeast/Central-West.
These projections, which cover electricity supply until the end of April 2026, were presented by the ONS (National System Operator) during the last ordinary meeting of the CMSE (Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee), held on November 5th.
Monitoring the transition and generating additional revenue.
The recommendation to closely monitor the transition between seasons to assess the actual rainfall volume remains in place. The Director-General of the ONS (National System Operator), Marcio Rea, emphasized that the operator is ready to adopt the necessary measures to continue guaranteeing the country's electricity supply.
In the analysis of the SIN's power supply, the indication remains that the system will need additional thermal generation in the lower inflow scenario, especially to cover peak hours, which generally occur between 17 pm and 22 pm.
CMSE demands reliability from power plants.
At the same meeting, the CMSE approved a set of measures aimed at improving the accuracy of data used in electrical and energy studies. The resolutions foresee coordinated actions between the ONS, the EPE (Energy Research Company) and the ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency).
One of the main focuses is to increase the accuracy and reliability of merchant plants, which are those that trade energy in the MCP (Short-Term Market) without long-term contracts.
The problem identified is that these power plants are considered in energy studies, such as the PMO (Monthly Operation Program), as guaranteed resources. However, failure to dispatch these plants alters the planned operating strategy.
The CMSE recommended that the ANEEL Strengthen the monitoring and oversight of these power plants, with the ONS (National System Operator) responsible for informing the agency when they fail to respond to dispatch commands, thus ensuring that they are reliable resources in the electricity grid.
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