The expansion of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and data center infrastructure has begun to alter the logic of investments and mergers in the global electricity sector. According to a report by PwCThe increased demand for energy is redefining the dynamics of M&A (mergers and acquisitions) in the energy, utilities, and natural resources sectors in 2026.
According to the consultancy, the movement goes beyond a cyclical trend and represents a structural transformation in the way generation, transmission and energy infrastructure assets are valued, financed and traded.
In this new environment, investors and M&A operators have begun to prioritize assets with the capacity to generate cash in the short term, operational predictability, and lower exposure to execution risks.
As a result, assets already in operation are gaining ground compared to greenfield projects, while the search for a balance between energy security, resilience, and decarbonization is growing.
The report shows that, by 2025, global M&A transactions in the energy, utilities, and resources sectors will have grown by 27% in value, despite a 2% drop in transaction volume.
The performance was driven by 20 megadeals (transactions exceeding US$5 billion) compared to just six recorded in 2024. The Americas accounted for 41% of the volume and 62% of the global value of transactions during the period, bringing together 14 of the 20 largest deals.
AI increases pressure on energy infrastructure.
PwC assesses that the global race to expand artificial intelligence will require a significant expansion of energy infrastructure. This includes not only power generation and transmission, but also natural gas networks, logistics infrastructure, critical minerals, and chemicals.
The consultancy expects that growing demand will drive investments in diversified solutions for generation, battery storage and service (BESS), transmission and assets supporting the electricity grid.
In this context, natural gas and LNG are regaining relevance in the international market, especially given concerns related to energy security and supply risks associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In the Brazilian case, the predominance of renewable sources expands the role of natural gas as a firm and dispatchable source within investment strategies focused on expanding digital demand.
The report also highlights the growth of transactions in mining and metallurgy. By 2026, the expectation is for a concentration of investments in gold, silver, copper, and critical minerals used in technologies related to the energy transition and digitalization.
According to the consultancy, Brazil could emerge as a relevant alternative in the supply of rare metals in a market that is currently highly concentrated in China.
Private capital gains prominence.
The consultancy also points out that financing energy and digital expansion will increasingly depend on the actions of private capital, sovereign wealth funds, and private credit structures.
Among the global examples cited are the Stargate initiative, focused on AI infrastructure, with a projected investment of US$500 billion supported by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, as well as the AI Infrastructure Partnership, which brings together BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners, and Microsoft.
In Brazil, one of the main examples is the partnership between TikTok, through ByteDance, Casa dos Ventos, and Omnia to build the platform's first data center in Latin America. The project foresees investments estimated at R$ 200 billion, with operations scheduled to begin in 2027.
Casa dos Ventos signs billion-dollar self-production contract for TikTok's data center.
Curtailment comes onto investors' radar.
PwC also draws attention to the impacts of the accelerated advancement of renewable energy sources in Brazil on investment theses in power generation.
Incentives to diversify the energy mix have increased investments in solar and wind power plants in recent years, expanding the base of assets eligible for M&A transactions, both in acquisitions of operating assets and in portfolio rotation strategies.
According to the consultancy, the distributed generation segment is also beginning to undergo a process of asset consolidation and recycling, something that was already expected after the strong rush for new projects between 2022 and 2023.
At the same time, the accelerated advancement of renewables has exposed structural bottlenecks in the Brazilian electricity system. The curtailment scenario has become central to investment analyses, impacting revenue projections, expected returns, and asset pricing.
According to PwC, while increased operational constraints represent a risk factor, the environment also creates opportunities for portfolio consolidation and asset restructuring.
According to Daniel Martins, Brazil possesses characteristics that place it in a strategic position. "Brazil combines a diversified electricity matrix and a broad pipeline of energy and sanitation projects. Added to this is regulatory predictability, positioning the country as a relevant market for merger and acquisition opportunities," he stated.
According to him, the main challenge for investors will be to structure operations capable of reconciling scale, capital discipline, and resilience in an environment still marked by high interest rates and regulatory changes.
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