With the rainy season registering below-average volumes in important river basins, the CMSE (Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee) has reinforced preventive actions to guarantee the country's energy security throughout 2026.
The decision was made during the 314th meeting of the board, held on January 14, based on data from the ONS (National Electric System Operator), the ANA (National Water Agency), and Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters).
Since October 2025, the committee has been monitoring rainfall patterns and reservoir levels, and had already anticipated a more critical scenario for the wet season.
According to the data presented at the meeting, equivalent storage levels at the end of December were 42% in the Southeast/Central-West, 71% in the South, 46% in the Northeast, and 55% in the North — with an average of 45% in the National Interconnected System (SIN).
Actions defined to address low hydrology.
Given this scenario, the CMSE established a set of measures that will guide the system's operation in 2026. Among the main initiatives is the reduction of hydraulic inflexibility in the withoutallowing greater control over hydroelectric power generation and contributing to the replenishment of reservoirs, with emphasis on the Paraná River basin.
Furthermore, the committee recommended the development of an action plan for the Paraná River basin, anticipating further flow reductions starting in March if rainfall remains below expectations in February. The plan should involve the responsible agencies and take into account the end of the spawning season.
The ONS (National System Operator) also emphasized the importance of maintaining the operation of the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Plant based on the current hydrograph, highlighting its strategic contribution to the National Interconnected System. According to the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy), the issue is being monitored by the CNPE (National Council for Energy Policy).
Forecasts indicate continued below-average rainfall.
The weather forecast presented by Cemaden indicates that, in the coming weeks, the main hydroelectric basins in the Southeast and Midwest regions will continue to receive below-average rainfall. This trend reinforces the committee's warning and the need for stricter preventative measures.
From the perspective of ENA (Natural Inflow Energy), the December figures were already low: 71% of the historical average in the South, 64% in the North, 42% in the Northeast, and 67% for the entire SIN (National Interconnected System).
Emergency aid in Amapá and decommissioning of thermal power plants in Roraima.
During the meeting, the CMSE also acknowledged an emergency situation in the Bailique district (AP), where the loss of 1.400 meters of power lines threatens the supply. The operation of a backup generation of up to 1 MW was authorized for 180 days, while the distributor CEA Equatorial prepares a definitive solution.
Another important decision was the authorization to begin decommissioning thermal power plants in Roraima, now that the state is integrated into the National Interconnected System (SIN). The measure aims to reduce emissions, increase the efficiency of local operations, and ensure quality standards similar to the rest of the country.
Expansion and stability in the market
The sector ended 2025 with impressive expansion figures: 7.404 MW of new installed capacity, 5.702 km of transmission lines, and 11.764 MVA of transformation capacity. In December alone, 653 MW of generation was added, with solar and wind projects in Bahia standing out.
In the area of commercialization, CCEE (Chamber of Electric Energy Commercialization) reported that there were no defaults in the Short-Term Market in November, even after the end of the injunctions related to hydrological risk (GSF). The result is considered positive for the advancement of the free market.
Permanent monitoring
The CMSE concluded the meeting with a commitment to continuously monitor the hydrological and operational conditions of the electrical system, adopting new measures as needed. The actions already underway are part of a strategic agenda to ensure the reliability of supply in a scenario of climate uncertainty.
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