Renewable sources should more than double by 2030, says IEA report

Renewable sources continue to expand strongly around the world and are expected to more than double in capacity by 2030, according to the Renewables 2025, the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) main annual report on the sector.

The document projects a 4.600 GW increase in global clean energy generation capacity by the end of the decade — a volume equivalent to the combined total capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan.

Solar energy alone will be responsible for around 80% of this growth, driven by cost reductions and faster licensing processes.

"In addition to growth in established markets, solar energy is expected to advance in economies such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Southeast Asian countries. As the role of renewables increases, policymakers need to be mindful of supply chain security and grid integration challenges," said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA.

The report also highlights the advancement of geothermal installations, which are expected to reach historic highs in countries such as the United States, Japan, and Indonesia. Pumped-storage hydropower is expected to regain ground, with projected growth nearly 80% higher than in the previous five years, driven by the challenges of grid integration.

“In emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, cost competitiveness and stronger policy support are driving faster growth in renewables, with many governments launching new auction programs and expanding their targets,” the IEA said.

Business confidence remains high

At the corporate level, the study shows that confidence in renewable energy remains high. Most major developers have maintained or expanded their deployment targets for 2030, demonstrating the sector's resilience and optimism.

"Growth in global renewable energy capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar photovoltaic energy," the study adds, "but other sources will also play a relevant role in diversifying the energy mix."

Offshore wind, however, presents a more subdued outlook—about 25% lower than forecast in the previous report—due to policy changes in key markets, logistical bottlenecks, and rising costs.

Overview of sources

The report further emphasizes that solar energy should remain the lowest-cost option for most countries. Wind energy, despite current constraints, should resume its expansion as supply bottlenecks are overcome—particularly in China, Europe, and India.

Hydroelectric power and other renewable technologies remain essential to ensuring stability and flexibility in electrical systems, while new capacity and storage auctions are being launched in several countries.

In transportation, the share of renewable sources is expected to grow from 4% to 6% by 2030, driven mainly by renewable electricity in electric vehicles in China and Europe, and by the advancement of biofuels in markets such as Brazil, Indonesia and India.

In the energy supply for buildings and industrial processes, the share of renewables is expected to increase from 14% to 18% over the same period, reinforcing the global transition towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy matrix.

Click here and check out the full IEA study.

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