Brazilian hydroelectric reservoirs received a breather at the end of the year, with more rain than expected in the last three months, and should end the year with a better outlook than in December 2020.
According to data ONS (National Electric System Operator), in the Northeast region, reservoirs are expected to end 2021 with 50% of their capacity, with above-average precipitation in the São Francisco River basin this week. In December last year, this index was 46,1%.
In the North, the rains forecast for the Madeira River basin should help the subsystem reach the 47,8% mark, which corresponds to a volume higher than the 28,1% recorded last year.
In the reservoirs of the Southeast/Central-West, which concentrate around 70% of the country's storage capacity, the rate predicted for the end of the year is 24,9%. In the same period of 2020, the volume in operation was 18,67%.
In the South subsystem, projections indicate that the average water level in the region's hydroelectric plants will be 41%, compared to 27,5% in the previous year.
Rain forecast
The ONS weekly bulletin, referring to the last operational week of the year, points out that above-average rainfall is expected in the basins of the North and Northeast subsystems, with 272% and 119% of the MLT (Long Term Average).
In the Southeast/Central-West subsystem, inflows should reach 94% of the MLT; while in the North the outlook is just 21% of the historical average. The MLT is the amount of rainfall that feeds the flow of rivers.
Concern for 2022
The improvement in the level of reservoirs at hydroelectric plants, with the return of rain in the final stretch of the year, should not be enough to guarantee a worry-free 2022 in the electricity sector.
In evaluating the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) and the ONS, the coming months will continue to demand attention and the maintenance of exceptional measures to guarantee the supply of energy to the population.
In the understanding of the two entities, the improvement of electroenergetic service conditions, both for 2021 and the prospects for 2022, remains the situation of attention, to the point that the CMSE (Electrical Sector Monitoring Committee) has to maintain “relevant monitoring work ”.
energy load
According to the ONS, the expected energy load for the month of December should decrease by 0,6% compared to the same period last year. The estimated volume for the month is 70.631 average MW, with a slowdown of 1,7% (40.088 average MW) in the Southeast/Central-West and 2,7% (11.699 average MW) in the Northeast.
The load in the South should remain at 3,6%, with 12.835 average MW, while in the North the forecast is 2,3% (6.009 average MW). “The percentage is a reflection of the holidays related to the end of year festivities, a change in the industry’s recovery trajectory as a result of prolonged interruptions in the supply chain, intense pressure on prices, market uncertainty and increased interest rates”, highlights the study.
Water crisis and renewable energy
The lack of rain and energy supply since the end of last year meant that the Federal Government was forced to take a series of measures to avoid the need for energy rationing among Brazilian families.
The main actions implemented were the purchase of energy from neighboring countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay, and adherence to the use of thermoelectric plants – a polluting and more expensive source, in which the cost is passed on to the consumer.
The measures, consequently, accelerated inflation and increased the value of the population's electricity bill in 2021, with the right to include an unprecedented type of tariff flag in the country, called “Water Scarcity Flag”.
Since the beginning of the year, experts in the energy sector have warned that it would be important to speed up the transition of energy matrices in Brazil, with the making investments in renewables to tackle the problem, since almost two-thirds of the country's energy matrix depends on electricity generated by hydroelectric plants.
According to the ONS, currently, 63,2% of the country's energy matrix comes from hydroelectric plants and 21,69% from thermoelectric plants. In contrast, wind and solar plants correspond to only 11,39% and 2,62% of the system, respectively.
