The number of consumer unit migrations to the Free Energy Market — through the retail model — has been gradually decreasing throughout 2025, according to data from CCEE (Electric Energy Trading Chamber).
This year, 2.349 migrations were recorded in January, 2.044 in February, 1.785 in March, and 1.790 in April, when the volume remained stable. From then on, the pace began to decline continuously: 1.626 in May, 1.513 in June, 1.252 in July, and 1.133 in August, according to the latest bulletin released.
In 2024, the scenario had been the opposite — migrations grew month after month between January and August, driven by a more competitive pricing environment and optimism about the opening of the market.
Despite the drop in numbers, Fred Menezes, Trading Director at Armor Energia, highlights that the current movement does not represent a loss of attractiveness, but rather a stage of maturation for the sector.
The professional explains that the slowdown reflects the structural rise in energy prices, but reinforces that the ACL (Free Contracting Environment) continues to be a solid alternative for both large Group A consumers and smaller companies.
"Even with the higher price scenario, migration continues, as the Free Market offers alternatives that enable more efficient energy planning, as well as real savings opportunities and contractual flexibility. It's a beneficial alternative for companies seeking strategic energy management," Menezes emphasizes.
The executive also highlights that the increase in the maximum PLD (Settlement Price of Differences) for 2025 — set by ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) at R$751,73/MWh, the highest since the implementation of the current model — illustrates the new cost level in the sector.
The diversification of the electricity grid, with a greater share of intermittent renewable sources, flexible thermal power, and storage systems, has increased average operating costs. Furthermore, the expiration of concessions for incentivized power plants and sectoral charges are adding new tariff pressures.
The market remains attractive and more demanding
Even with this context of higher prices, the Free Energy Market remains attractive. Menezes notes that there is a growing demand for fixed-price contracts or those with guaranteed discounts on the regulated tariff, which offer predictability amid the sector's volatility.
"The market's stance today is one of caution. Consumers and retailers are paying more attention to risk management and regulatory changes. But this behavior is a sign of maturity, not decline. The free market is more demanding," Menezes assesses.
In addition to the economic factor, the ACL has established itself as a strategic tool for supplier diversification, renewable energy acquisition, and strengthening companies' ESG goals.
Provisional Measure 1.304, currently being processed by the National Congress, provides for the gradual opening of the market to all consumers, which should expand the membership base in the coming years.
"Today, it's essential to incorporate risk analysis, contractual flexibility, and a long-term vision to make assertive decisions. Those who anticipate changes will come out ahead," Menezes concludes.
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