EPE (Energy Research Company) released the PET (Transmission Expansion Program) and the PELP (Long-Term Expansion Plan) – 1st Semester of 2022.
The objective was to present the works planned for the expansion of the SIN (National Interconnected System) defined in planning studies completed by June 2022 and which have not yet been authorized or tendered.
The PET/PELP consists of a management document, published twice a year, which covers all SIN expansion works, recommended in planning studies coordinated by EPE, and which have not yet been authorized or tendered.
According to EPE, it is an important reference for the market, as it presents an overview of the sector's prospects, including details and information about the next expansions planned for the transmission system.
Transmission investment
According to the document, the total investment associated with the expansions included in this edition of PET/PELP is R$ 103,4 billion, segregated as follows:
- R$67,0 billion (65%) relate to investments in transmission lines, while R$36,4 billion (35%) relate to substations;
- R$91,3 billion (88%) refers to investments in bidding facilities, while R$12,1 billion (12%) are associated with authorization facilities;
- R$74,1 billion (72%) refers to investments in works originally planned for the purpose of generating generation, eventually involving the expansion of interconnections, while R$29,3 billion (28%) relates to works planned with a focus on serving regional markets.
Still according to EPE, of the total investment of R$ 103,4, R$ 42,1 billion (41%) is for the Southeast/Mid-West submarket, R$ 16,5 billion for the South submarket (16% ), R$15,6 billion for the North submarket (15%) and R$29,2 billion for the Northeast submarket (28%).
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Total investment by region (R$). EPE source
The document also reports that in relation to the total investment of R$67 billion in transmission lines, R$66 billion are associated with bidding works and R$19,9 billion of this amount (30%) should come into operation by 2028. With this, an expansion of approximately 26,8 thousand km in new transmission lines is expected throughout the PET/PELP horizon.
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Physical expansion of transmission lines (km). Source: EPE
Transmission auctions to reinforce solar flow
Among the main transmission works of a bidding nature and which are estimated to be included in the next transmission auctions in 2022, EPE shows that three states will have works to reinforce the transmission system to support the flow of energy generated from solar sources.
In Espírito Santo, the proposed works at the João Neiva substation aim to enable the transfer of energy surpluses from renewable sources (wind and solar) from new plants located in the northern regions of Minas Gerais and Bahia to the Espírito Santo region.
In Minas Gerais, the indicated structural reinforcements will facilitate the flow of the photovoltaic solar energy potential of the North of Minas Gerais, enabling the connection of around 12.000 MW of generation in the northern region of the state.
And, finally, in Rio de Janeiro, the 500 kV system will allow expanding the energy flow capacity in the southeast region and will provide a robust transmission axis to contribute to the flow of wind generation from the Northeast region, and solar from the region of Minas Gerais.
Second Bernardo Marangon, consulting partner Exact Energy, the construction of these lines is essential for the flow of renewable energy, coming from the Northeast and North of Minas Gerais, to the southeast region. He also highlights that storage solutions could be evaluated to replace some lines, especially in the case of solar, which concentrates a lot of generation at a certain period of the day.
“I believe that the storage solution will be competitive at some point, given the great idleness of the lines that will be built for solar flow, for me, storage makes much more sense if seen as an alternative solution to energy transmission, rather than a responsibility of the energy generator to optimize its connection”, he assesses.
Another important point raised by José Marangon Lima, partner of MC&E, is that since transmission is a long-term investment, technological advances that are already present today and with greater intensity on this horizon are not being envisaged.
“In addition to storage, another example is the significant increase in load in the Northeast region due to the introduction of the green hydrogen industry, which could drain the entire renewable potential of the region, rendering idle the lines planned to increase the export capacity of this region to the Southeast. In this region, we cannot forget the intensification of distributed generation (with net-metering or in the Free Market), which should stabilize the growth of net load in the near future,” he points out.
