Rising average temperatures, the intensification of extreme events, and the increased frequency of strong winds, heavy rains, and wildfires can compromise the efficiency of photovoltaic modules and cause structural damage to power plants.
In the case of DG (distributed generation), which also includes installations on residential rooftops, the vulnerability is even greater, due to the lower robustness of the structures against severe winds, hail and floods.
These are some of the main highlights of a study carried out by EPE (Energy Research Company) that evaluated in detail the impacts that climate change has been causing on solar energy assets.
The risks are growing, according to EPE, which has just published a fact sheet dedicated to the topic, along with three other copies, which deal, respectively, with wind generation, hydroelectric generation, and transmission systems. The content was extracted from in-depth studies.
The descriptions regarding solar power are based on real-life cases. Winds exceeding 100 km/h in Tocantins caused 36 generating units to become unavailable, while floods in Rio Grande do Sul and wildfires in the North and Central-West regions reduced solar production by obstructing radiation.
Increased cloud cover, associated with changes in precipitation patterns, also threatens to reduce solar radiation in certain regions, compromising the predictability of generation.
Climate projections indicate worrying trends: rising average temperatures across the country, increased extreme rainfall in the Southeast, South and North, and increased severe winds in almost all regions.
Although there is an expectation of greater surface irradiation in the North, Northeast and part of the Central-West, this gain may be neutralized by greater risks of fires and prolonged droughts.
The structural vulnerability of solar generation in Brazil is linked to the direct dependence on irradiation and the sizing of equipment for climatic conditions that no longer reflect future reality, according to EPE.
The advancement of this modality — which grew 131% annually between 2016 and 2024 and now accounts for almost 10% of national generation — requires urgent adaptations to ensure resilience.
In this context, EPE has focused on identifying ways to mitigate the effects of climate changesIn the short term, it advocates measures such as strengthening infrastructure, adopting more resilient equipment, and developing emergency plans for extreme events.
In the medium and long term, it focuses on improving climate models, including the impacts of global warming in planning studies, and strengthening regulation, with certifications and technical standards for micro and mini distributed generation.
The theme is already incorporated into the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2034) and the National Energy Plan (PNE 2050 and 2055), which deal with security of supply in extreme scenarios.
Also underway, with support from agencies such as INPE and ANA, is a specific study to assess the resilience of the electricity grid, focusing on the effects of climate change on renewable sources.
EPE also highlights the need to expand research, innovation, and communication, disseminating best practices among investors, managers, and local communities. For the state-owned company, the biggest challenge will be balancing the costs of adaptation and more frequent maintenance with maintaining affordable tariffs.
While the future holds opportunities, such as increased solar radiation in some regions, it also demands rapid and coordinated responses. Without adaptation, solar energy risks losing some of its leading role in the Brazilian electricity grid—precisely at a time when it is consolidating itself as a key component of the energy transition, warns EPE.
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