After a 2025 marked by declining sales and a severe credit shortage, the solar energy sector expects a gradual market recovery in 2026, with prospects of falling interest rates, increased financing availability, and a less unstable regulatory environment.
The assessment comes from Sergio Koloszuk, managing partner of Solar Group, in an interview with... Canal Solar. According to him, the market's performance in 2025 fell short of the photovoltaic industry's expectations, especially in the second half of the year.
The year began with strong sales, but the slowdown observed before the period of Intersolar The situation intensified over the following months, contradicting the historical expectation of a recovery in the sector in the second half of the year.
“Everyone was preparing for a stronger second half of the year, but that didn’t happen. The result was disappointing for many distributors,” said Koloszuk.
According to the executive, the main factor behind this scenario was the scarcity of credit, aggravated by an environment of high interest rates, which persisted throughout almost the entire second half of the year. "Financing is the main gateway for consumers. With high interest rates, it became difficult to make projects viable," he emphasized.
Furthermore, Koloszuk pointed out that regulatory uncertainties have also affected end-consumer confidence. According to him, rumors about possible changes in the sector, increased costs, or even restrictions on distributed generation (DG) end up generating insecurity. "This type of discourse creates fear and causes the customer to postpone the decision to invest," he assessed.
Another sensitive point in 2025 was the emergence of signs of financial fragility in part of the distribution chain. According to the managing partner of Solar Group, some distributors faced difficulties throughout the year, which ended up reinforcing a more conservative stance from the financial system. "This raised an alert and contributed to an even greater contraction in credit granting," he stressed.
Expectations of improvement in 2026
Despite the adverse scenario of the previous year, the outlook for 2026 is more positive. Koloszuk believes that the future downward trend in interest rates should stimulate the gradual return of credit to the market. "I see 2026 tending to be a better year than 2025, because we have a scenario of future interest rate declines. I believe there will be a greater supply of credit, which is a positive point for increased sales," he said.
The executive also points to macroeconomic factors that could favor the resumption of economic activity throughout the year, such as the expansion of the income tax exemption bracket. "This money ends up circulating in the economy and, even if a person doesn't invest directly in solar energy, they consume more and indirectly stimulate the entire chain," he noted.
Furthermore, the fact that 2026 is an election year may also contribute to a boost in the economy, with accelerated public works, municipal programs, and greater circulation of public resources. "All of this results in higher disposable income for the population," he assessed.
Flexible planning and investments in automation
Given the volatility of the solar market, Solar Group has adopted a more flexible planning strategy. Instead of drawing up a fixed annual budget, the company works with four-month planning cycles, reviewed monthly.
“Beyond six months, any forecast becomes a guess. The sector is very unpredictable,” explained Koloszuk, highlighting that this model allows for constant adjustments to goals and greater internal predictability for employees, especially in meeting sales targets and in the rewards system.
In the field of investments, Solar Group has been directing efforts towards process automation. The executive highlights that the company has been following a guideline for about two years of operating with a Chinese mindset on Brazilian soil, prioritizing efficiency, technology, and economies of scale.
In 2025, the company recorded similar revenue to 2022, but with a significantly leaner structure. "In 2022, we had around 440 employees. In 2025, we achieved the same revenue with approximately 150 people," said Koloszuk.
Another point highlighted by the commercial director is Solar Group's commitment to strengthening the solar sector's supply chain. The company sells its products exclusively through distributors, even in large-volume operations.
“Everything we manufacture is sold to the integrator through the distributor. We have great respect for the supply chain (…) If the distributor isn’t strong, neither will we be. Strengthening this relationship is essential for the sustainability of the sector,” he pointed out.
With a more predictable regulatory landscape and signs of improvement in the economic environment, Solar Group begins 2026 betting on operational efficiency, a gradual recovery of credit, and strengthening the supply chain as pillars to navigate the new cycle of the Brazilian solar market.
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Sad! The solar sector has never been so affected by a government as it has been by Lula's. It's extremely sad what this misgovernment is doing to the sustainable energy sector. Sustainable rhetoric and unsustainable actions, sad and dishonest to businesses and the population.