Projections disclosed, in December last year, by EPE (Energy Research Company) and by ABSOLAR (Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association) pointed that accumulated power de solar energy in the DG segment (distributed generation) would end 2023 with 21,6 GW.
However, what we saw in the first six months of the year was a segment that, despite all the difficulties encountered, achieved results above those projected initially by the entities.
throughout the first semester, were more than 4,1 GW of installed power by micro and mini photovoltaic generation – a volume that has caused Brazil to surpass the 18 GW installed at the beginning of the year and accumulate approximately 22,5 GW to date.
Altogether, the growth of solar DG No. first semester was higher than more than 20% compared to the same period of the previous year, when 3,44 GW came into operation in the country, according to data from ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency).
Despite the great numbers, it is important to highlight that the data made available by ANEEL – which are taken into consideration by the entire DG market for carrying out projections and analyses – have a kind of “delay” in relation to reality.
This is because the Agency's numbers are constructed based on the registration data of the generating plants sent monthly by the distributors to the ANEEL, which prevents the information that enters the entity's system from being updated in real time.
It is also worth noting that the projections made by EPE and ABSOLAR they took into account a conservative scenario, considering macroeconomic factors and changes in government, which still draws attention to the fact that this goal was exceeded in less than six months.
Because of that, Leandro Martins, president of Ecori Solar Energy, highlights that – despite the system of ANEEL point out that Brazil installed more than 4,1 GW in the first half of the year – this number has a high chance of being higher than 6 GW, since, according to the Agency itself, solar DG has added around 1 GW of power to the national electricity grid every month.
“We had an acceleration of projects at the beginning of the year and then we had plants above 1 MW also entering the database. ANEEL. I believe that, this year, we will have growth of approximately 10 GW”, projected Martins.
Second semester
To Felipe Cunha, commercial director of Amara NZero Brazil, The solar energy sector in the second half of this year will prove to be even stronger than it was in the first, due to some factors.
The first involves the DG plants that will be installed and will have their access approvals due in the second half of the year. “These are larger plants, within the DG segment, in which the opinions are longer and take up to 12 months to be installed”, he commented.
“As many plants were registered at the end of last year (by consumers who sought to avoid the rules provided for by Law 14.300), we imagine that the largest volume of equipment purchases for these plants will take place between the months of August and October”, scored.
Other points cited by Cunha to justify the optimistic scenario involve: the drastic reduction that has been occurring in the price of photovoltaic equipment on the international market, the stability of the dollar in relation to the real and the reduction in inflation in the country, with a likely drop in the rate of interest later this year.
“All of this contributes to making solar energy an increasingly viable investment regardless of any taxation or any other taxation,” he said.
Nuno Verças, CEO of Aldo Solar, also highlights that expectations for solar DG in the second half of the year are positive, since – in his view – the sector was able to better assimilate some issues that impacted the first months of the year.
“We are optimistic that in this second half of the year the market will return to a normalization of orders, which does not mean that it will be an easy semester with no impact on the margins of the entire chain”, he highlighted.
According to the executive, the remainder of 2023 should be marked by the prospect of a drop in interest rates and a slight resumption of access to credit.
“Additionally, recent increases in energy tariffs have given people and business owners a renewed interest in solar as a long-term investment to combat these annual increases,” he highlighted.
Furthermore, Verças remembers that it is always necessary to keep in mind that only 2% of Brazilian roofs have solar energy and that, looking at the medium and long term, the Brazilian market still has great opportunities to be worked on not only inthe installation of photovoltaic systems, but also “in all the complementary solutions that arise from this movement, such as electric chargers, battery storage systems, among others”, he commented.
